000 AXNT20 KNHC 081114 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 714 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... An occluded 1010 mb low pressure system is centered near 31N44.5W. An occluded front extends from the low to 33N44W to a triple point near 33N43W. A cold front extends from the triple point to 29N43W to 24N48W to 23N52W to 24N58W. A stationary front extends eastward from the triple point to 34N31W. There are no gales occurring south of 31N in the southern semicircle. However, gales to 35 kt are occurring in portions of the northern semicircle north of 31N. Scattered moderate convection is north of 30N between 38W-46W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for the low to acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics during the next day or two, and this system has a medium chance of becoming a subtropical or tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours while it moves slowly westward. Upper-level winds are expected to become unfavorable for further development by Wednesday evening. As the low moves W during the next 48 hours, expect any gales to be confined to areas north of 31N in the northern semicircle. Please see the High Seas Forecast product under WMO/AWIPS headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis along 15W from 19N southward along the coast of Africa, moving W at 5-10 kt. This position was shifted eastward by 2 degrees from the previous map because new data and satellite imagery indicate the tropical wave is still inland over West Africa. Model diagnostics indicate the wave's location well. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 05N-15N between 11W-20W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 35W from 06N-20N, moving W around 10 kt. TPW imagery and model guidance depict this wave well. Scattered showers are noted from 13N-16N between 31W-35W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 66W from 21N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails from 10N-18N between 61W-72W, including over the Windward Islands. A central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 77W from 05N-20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen where the wave meets the East Pacific monsoon trough from 09N-13N between 74W-80W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the west coast of Africa near the border of Senegal and Mauritania near 16N16W to 12N25W to 08N38W. The ITCZ extends from 08N38W to 10N62W. Aside from the convection mentioned above in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate convection is over the eastern Atlantic from 02N-10N between 20W-30W. Numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is along and within 180 nm N of the ITCZ between 55W-62W, including the Windward Islands. GULF OF MEXICO... An elongated surface trough extends from Cancun Mexico to Ft. Myers Florida. Scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms are seen near South Florida, the Florida Straits, western Cuba, the Yucatan Channel and the waters north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Similar convection is seen to the west of Tampa Bay. A separate surface trough is over the SW Gulf from 18N95W to 22N98W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen over the Bay of Campeche from 18N-21N between 91W-97W. As of 08/0900 UTC, a cold front extends across the Gulf of Mexico from Panama City Florida to 29N89W to the mouth of the Rio Grande River near 26N97W to 26N101W. It continues inland as a stationary front to 30N107W. Isolated showers and tstorms are seen over the Gulf of Mexico along and within 30 nm ahead of the cold front between 90W-97W. Fresh to strong NE winds are N of the cold front and offshore of Louisiana and Texas. The cold front will continue moving SE across the Gulf today. This front will stall over the SE Gulf Wed and Thu. Moderate to fresh winds behind this front will persist into Wed before diminishing. Today, NW winds off Veracruz may reach strong speeds. Another cold front will move into the NW Gulf Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... See section above for details on two tropical waves over the Caribbean Sea. An elongated surface trough extends from Cancun Mexico to Ft. Myers Florida. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen over the Yucatan Channel. Upper-level diffluence is enhancing scattered moderate to strong convection over the western Gulf of Honduras from 16N-18N between 86W-89W. Isolated moderate convection is from eastern and central Cuba to the Cayman Islands to NE Honduras. The ASCAT pass from late Monday evening shows fresh trades across the eastern and central Caribbean from 11.5N- 18N between 60W-77W. The tropical wave along 77W will reach Central America on Wed. The tropical wave along 66W will move south of the Greater Antilles Wed and Thu. Winds over the S central Caribbean will be locally strong through Wed. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will generally prevail across much of the region for the next several days. Large N swell will prevail east of the Lesser Antilles today and tonight before gradually subsiding for the latter half of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the system that has a medium chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on two tropical waves currently over the tropical Atlantic. A 1011 mb surface low is near 32N76W. A surface trough extends from that low to a 1009 mb low near 28N80W to Ft. Myers Florida. Strong upper-level diffluence and divergence east of Florida is enhancing scattered moderate convection from 25N-32N between 70W-80W. Similar convection is seen from the north coast of east- central Cuba to the Central Bahamas. The low near 28N80W may strengthen slightly today and produce fresh to locally strong winds before it merges into the low near 32N76W by Wed. This system is then forecast to move northward or northeastward and could acquire some subtropical characteristics off the east coast of the United States in a couple of days. There is a low chance of tropical or subtropical cyclone formation. A cold front extends from 33N43W to 29N43W to 24N48W to 23N52W to 24N58W. The front continues as stationary to 29N68W, dissipating to 31N72W. Scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms are near the stationary front and cold front. North of the stationary front, strong winds will prevail along with very rough seas and scattered showers and tstorms today. As the front dissipates by tonight, winds and seas will diminish as the pressure gradient relaxes. A new cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast tonight and approach the NW Bahamas on Wed. It should then stall and weaken over the Bahamas for the latter half of the week. $$ Hagen