000 AXNT20 KNHC 080607 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 207 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning in the central Atlantic: A 1014 mb non-tropical surface low pressure system is centered near 32N44W. A cold front extends from the low to 25N50W to 25N56W. A stationary front extends east-northeast from the low to beyond 34N37W. The latest ASCAT data from 07/2348 UTC shows gale force winds north of the low, and north of a line from 31N47W to 32N44W to 34N42W to 34N38W. Scattered moderate convection is north of 30N between 38W-46W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for the low to acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics during the next day or two, and this system has a medium chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical storm during the next 48 hours while it moves slowly westward. Although the gale warning for the forecast area south of 31N expires at 28/0600 UTC, gales are expected to persist north of 31N, with winds of 20-30 kt north of 30N between 46W-55W today. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecast product, under WMO/AWIPS headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSTAT2. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis along 16/17W from 18N southward along the coast of Africa, moving W at 5-10 kt. Model guidance indicate the wave's location well near this area. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 11N-17N between 13W-17W and from 03N-09N between 10W-20W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 34W from 17N southward, moving W around 10 kt. TPW imagery and wave model guidance depict this wave well. Scattered showers are noted from 12N-16N between 30W-34W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 64W from 21N southward, moving W around 15-20 kt. The wave is noted in satellite imagery and model guidance. Scattered moderate convection prevails from 10N-17N between 55W-69W, including over the Windward Islands. A central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis from 21N75.5W to 14N76.5W to 06N76.5W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen where the wave meets the East Pacific monsoon trough from 09N-12N between 71W-77W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 15N17W to 12N24W to 12N30W to 07N40W. The ITCZ extends from 07N40W to 08N50W to 10N60W. Aside from the convection mentioned above in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate convection is over the Atlantic from 02N-11N between 20W-30W and N of the ITCZ from 08N-12.5N between 47W-55W. GULF OF MEXICO... An elongated surface trough extends from the Yucatan Peninsula near 19N89W northeastward to South Florida near 26N82W to 28N77W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen over the Yucatan Peninsula, near South Florida and over the Florida Straits. Similar convection is noted to the west of Tampa Bay from 26.5N-28.5N between 83.5W-85W. Isolated showers are elsewhere near the trough over the SE Gulf. This trough will lift northward across the SE Gulf today. Some slight development is possible today along the northeastern part of the trough when it moves off the SE U.S. coast into the Atlantic. A separate surface trough is over the SW Gulf from 19N94W to 22N97W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along and to the SW of the trough axis, from 18N-21.5N between 94W-97.5W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is seen inland over SE Mexico from 16N-19N between 90W-93W. This trough is forecast to dissipate early this morning. As of 08/0300 UTC, a cold front extends across the NW Gulf of Mexico from near Mobile Alabama to near 29N91W to the coast of Texas near 27N97W. It continues inland as a stationary front to 26N100W to 28N105W. Isolated showers and tstorms are seen over the Gulf of Mexico within 30 nm of the cold front. The latest ASCAT pass shows strong NE winds to the N of the cold front south of the central and western portion of the Louisiana coast. The front will push SE and extend from near the Florida Big Bend region to the Bay of Campeche by this afternoon. NE winds will strengthen to fresh speeds across the western Gulf behind the front, with strong NW winds expected offshore of Veracruz today. The front will weaken Wed through Thu. Another cold front will move into the NW Gulf Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... See section above for details on two tropical waves over the Caribbean Sea. An elongated surface trough extends from the Yucatan Peninsula near 19N89W northeastward to South Florida near 26N82W to 28N77W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen over the Yucatan Peninsula and Yucatan Channel. Strong upper-level divergence and diffluence over Cuba and south of Cuba is enhancing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 18N-23N between 77W- 81W. Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere across the NW Caribbean north of 15.5N west of 77W. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh trades across the eastern and central Caribbean from 11.5N-18N between 60W-77W. The weak tropical wave over the central Caribbean near 76W will enter the western Caribbean late today, then reach Central America Wed. The tropical wave along 64W will move into the central Caribbean Wed. Winds over the S central Caribbean will be locally strong through Wed. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will generally prevail across much of the region for the next several days. Large N to NE swell will continue to augment seas east of the Lesser Antilles today. Then, seas will subside Wed through Fri as the swell decay. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the system producing gales near 31N over the central Atlantic that has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on two tropical waves currently over the tropical Atlantic. A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form today in the vicinity of 32N74W. This system is then forecast to move northward or northeastward and could acquire some subtropical characteristics off the east coast of the United States in a couple of days. Currently, an elongated surface trough extends from the Yucatan Peninsula near 19N89W northeastward to South Florida near 26N82W to 28N77W. Weather near the northeastern portion of this surface trough is forecast to combine into the developing non-tropical area of low pressure near 32N74W by Wednesday. Strong upper-level diffluence and divergence over Cuba, South Florida and the Bahamas is currently enhancing scattered moderate convection from 21N-32N between 74W-80W. From 27N-32N, this convection covers the area between 71W-81W. A cold front extends from 32N44W to 25N50W to 25N56W. The front continues as stationary to 26N65W to 29N70W to 30N75W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along and N of the front from 25N-32N between 63W-68W. Isolated showers are elsewhere along and within 60 nm ahead of the stationary and cold front. The frontal system will lift northward and dissipate this morning west of 65W. NE swell will continue impacting the remaining waters east of the Bahamas into Tue, then gradually decay through mid week. The surface trough extending from the Florida Keys to near Abaco Island will slowly lift N today. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected east of the trough over the northern waters. Another cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast today, approach the NW Bahamas Wed through Thu, then dissipate over the central Bahamas Fri. $$ Hagen