000 AXNT20 KNHC 080004 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 803 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gale Warning in the central Atlantic... A 1012 mb surface low is centered near 31N45W. A stationary front extends from the low to 27N50W to a 1018 mb low near 26N56W. Latest scatterometer data depicts strong to gale force winds within 90 nm in the west semicircle of the low. Seas in this area are ranging between 13-19 ft. These conditions will diminish by 08/0600 UTC. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecast product, under WMO/AWIPS headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSTAT2. A non-tropical low pressure system located over the central Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Azores is producing gale-force winds to the north of its center. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for the low to acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics during the next day or two, and this system could become a tropical or subtropical storm on Tuesday or Wednesday while it moves slowly westward. Upper-level winds are expected to become unfavorable for further development by Wed night. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecast product, under WMO/AWIPS headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSTAT2. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis along 15W from 17N southward along the coast of Africa, moving W around 10 kt. Model guidance indicate the wave's location well near this area. Scattered moderate convection extends 180 nm on either side of the wave axis. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 33W from 16N southward, moving W around 10-15 kt. TPW imagery and wave model guidance depict this wave very well. Scattered showers are noted along the northern portion of the wave axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 62W from 20N southward, moving W around 10-15 kt. The wave is noted in satellite imagery and model guidance. Scattered moderate convection prevails within 250 nm west of the wave axis mainly north of 13N. A central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis from 19N74W to 07N75W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the northern portion of the wave affecting Hispaniola and adjacent waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 13N17W to 09N24W to 11N32W to 08N39W. The ITCZ continues from 08N39W to 11N58W. Besides the convection mentioned above in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate convection is over the Atlantic from 03N-12N between 17W-28W and along the ITCZ between 45W-58W. GULF OF MEXICO... An elongated surface trough extends across the southern portion of the basin and the far west Caribbean from 25N80W to 22N86W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along and south this trough. This surface feature is supported at upper levels by a diffluent flow. To the southwest, a surface trough extends from 22N97W to 19N94W with scattered moderate convection. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh winds across the Bay of Campeche west of the trough, while moderate winds prevail across the remainder of the basin. The surface trough over the SW Gulf will dissipate tonight. The other trough will continue to lift northward across the SE Gulf tonight into Tue. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf tonight, then extend from near the Florida Big Bend region to the Bay of Campeche on Tue. NE winds will strengthen to moderate to fresh speeds across the western Gulf behind the front, with strong NW winds expected offshore of Veracruz tonight and Tue. The front will weaken Wed through Thu. The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf by the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean while another wave is entering the eastern portion of the basin. See the section above for details. A surface trough extends over the NW Caribbean from western Cuba near 22N84W to near 17N88W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in this area, mainly west of 80W. ASCAT pass shows fresh trades south of 12N and W of 68W, fresh to strong southerly flow south of the trough in the NW Caribbean from 18N-21N between 82W- 86W, and gentle to moderate winds in the SW Caribbean. The tropical wave over the central Caribbean near will enter the western Caribbean tonight, then reach Central America Wed. The other tropical wave will move into the central Caribbean by Wed. Winds over the S central Caribbean will be locally strong through mid-week. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will prevail across much of the region for the next several days. Large N to NE swell will augment seas east of the Lesser Antilles today through Tue. Then, seas will subside Wed through Fri as the swell decay. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for information about the Gale Warning currently in effect and the area with tropical development potential. Two tropical waves are in the tropical Atlantic. See the section above for details. Upper level diffluence and a surface trough along 26N are enhancing convection across the west Atlantic, where scattered to numerous showers and tstorms are noted west of 75W. To the east, a frontal boundary is analyzed as a stationary front from a 1012 mb low near 31N44W to a 1018 mb low near 26N56W to 28N68W. The front weakens and transitions into a warm front from that point to 30N74W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 26N-31N between 62W- 72W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1023 mb high centered near 36N21W. The frontal system will lift northward and dissipate tonight. NE swell will continue impacting the remaining waters east of the Bahamas into Tue, then gradually decay through mid week. Elsewhere, a surface trough extending from the Florida Keys to near Abaco Island will slowly lift N tonight and Tue. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected east of the trough over the northern waters. Another cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast Tue, approach the NW Bahamas Wed through Thu, then dissipate over the central Bahamas Fri. $$ ERA