000 AXNT20 KNHC 071815 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 215 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A non-tropical low pressure system located over the central Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Azores is producing gale-force winds to the north of its center. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for the low to acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics during the next day or two, and this system could become a tropical or subtropical storm on Tuesday or Wednesday while it moves slowly westward. Upper-level winds are expected to become unfavorable for further development by Wed night. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis along 14W from 17N southward near the coast of Africa, moving W around 10 kt. TPW and model guidance indicate the wave well near the area. Scattered moderate convection extends 180 nm on either side of the wave from 03N-18N between 12W- 18W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 31W from 16N southward, moving W around 10 kt. TPW imagery and wave model guidance depict this wave very well. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 10N-15N between 28W-32W. Scattered showers are tstorms elsewhere along the monsoon trough. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 59W from 20N southward, moving W around 15 kt. The wave is noted in satellite imagery and model guidance. Scattered moderate convection is seen 250 nm on either side of the wave affecting the Lesser Antilles and northern coast of Guyana and Venezuela. A central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis from 19N72W to 06N74W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are seen where the wave intersects the East Pacific monsoon trough and south of coast of Haiti. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 12N16W to 08N38W. The ITCZ continues from 08N38W to 09N55W. Excluding the convection mentioned above in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate convection is over the Atlantic from 02N-12N between 18W-22W and along the ITCZ from 08N-12N between 43W-56W. GULF OF MEXICO... In the upper levels, a N-S upper-level trough is along 88W. Upper level diffluence east of the trough is producing scattered showers and isolated tstorms along with broken to overcast multi-layered clouds over the eastern Gulf, mainly E of 88W, from the Yucatan Channel to the west coast of Florida. This is enhancing scattered showers north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the northern Gulf coast from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh E winds over much of the eastern Gulf, with moderate winds elsewhere. A surface trough extends over the NW Caribbean from W Cuba near 21N84W to the Yucatan Peninsula near 16N88W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is over the Yucatan Channel from 21N to the Gulf of Honduras. To the west, a surface trough is in the Bay of Campeche from 22N96W to 18N93W. Scattered moderate convection is 18N-22N and W of 94W. A weak low pressure trough over the SW Gulf will dissipate tonight. Another trough extending from the Yucatan Peninsula across western Cuba will lift northward across the SE Gulf tonight into Tue. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf this afternoon, then extend from near the Florida Big Bend region to the Bay of Campeche on Tue. NE winds will strengthen to moderate to fresh speeds across the western Gulf behind the front, with strong NW winds expected offshore of Veracruz today through Tue. The front will weaken across the eastern Gulf Wed through Thu. Another cold front will move into the NW Gulf Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean. See the section above for details. A surface trough extends over the NW Caribbean from western Cuba near 21N84W to near 16N88W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted in the NW Caribbean Sea from the Gulf of Honduras north along the Yucatan Channel to 21N and W of 81W. In the south, scattered showers are seen near the monsoon trough from 09N-13N between 78W-82W. In the eastern Caribbean, scattered showers and tstorms are seen in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. ASCAT pass shows fresh trades south of 12N and W of 68W and fresh to strong southerly flow south of the trough in the NW Caribbean from 18N-21N between 82W-86W with gentle to moderate winds in the Southwest Caribbean Sea. A weak tropical wave over the central Caribbean will move westward across the western Caribbean today through Tue, then reach Central America on Wed. Another tropical wave will reach the Lesser Antilles later today, cross the eastern Caribbean on Tue, then move into the central Caribbean Wed. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail across much of the region for the next several days. Large N to NE swell will build seas east of the Lesser Antilles today through Tue. Then, seas will subside Wed through Fri as the swell decays over the region. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are in the tropical Atlantic. See the section above for details. A cold front extends across the Atlantic waters from a 1018 mb low pressure centered near 31N43W to a second 1018 mb low pressure near 26N56W, then curves northwest to 27N69W to a dissipating front near 30N73W. Scattered moderate convection is seen 80 to 160 nm southeast of the boundary between the two areas of low pressure, and scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 27N-31N between 61W-73W. A mid to upper-level low near 29N74W is inducing scattered moderate convection from 23N-28N between 69W-73W. A surface trough extends from the north central Bahamas near 26N75W to the Straits of Florida into the NW Caribbean Sea. The trough is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slight development of this system is possible on Tuesday when it moves over the far western Atlantic. The disturbance is forecast to merge with a frontal boundary and developing low off the east coast of the United States by Wednesday, and no further development is anticipated after that time. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of the the southern Florida peninsula during the next day or so. The latest ASCAT pass shows that the strong to near gale force winds are occurring north of the front. Winds are gentle or moderate from that line southward to 14N. Surface ridging prevails over the eastern Atlantic, anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near 35N21W. A nearly stationary front extends across the northern waters from 26N65W to 30N74W. Strong to near gale force NE to E winds will persist north of the front today, along with very rough seas and scattered showers and thunderstorms. The front will lift northward and weaken through tonight, then dissipate by Tue. NE swell will continue impacting the remaining waters east of the Bahamas into Tue, then gradually decay through mid week. Elsewhere, a surface trough extending across the NW Bahamas will move NW today through Tue, with fresh to strong winds and building seas expected east of the trough over the northern waters. Another cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast Tue, approach the NW Bahamas Wed through Thu, then dissipate over the central Bahamas on Fri. $$ MTorres