000 AXNT20 KNHC 070553 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 153 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A cold front extends across the west Atlantic waters from 32N45W to 26N58W to 26N64W, continuing as a stationary front to 28N74W to 28N80W. Gale force winds are occurring in the vicinity of the front north of 30.5N between 48W-50W and from 28N-30N between 67W-70W. Seas in these areas are ranging between 12-16 ft. These conditions will continue through early this morning, when the cold front is expected to dissipate. Refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop along the frontal boundary mentioned above, over the central Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Azores by tonight. Gradual development of this system is possible while it moves slowly westward, and a tropical or subtropical depression could form on Tuesday or Wednesday before upper-level winds become unfavorable. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 30W from 03N-16N, moving W around 10 kt. TPW imagery and model guidance depict this wave very well. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 09N-15N between 25W-32W, and from 03N-08N between 22W-29W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 57W from 03N-20N, moving W around 15 kt. This wave is noted in satellite imagery and model guidance. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N-15.5N between 50W-59W. This tropical wave will increase moisture across the Lesser Antilles later today. A central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis from 21N70W to 08N72W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen where the wave intersects the East Pacific monsoon trough near the N coast of Colombia from 09N-11.5N between 71.5W-77W. The wave no longer contains any significant convection north of 11.5N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 14N17W to 11N21W to 09N37W. The ITCZ continues from 09N37W to 07N46W to 08N54W. Excluding the convection mentioned above in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the far E Atlantic near the coast of Africa, from 06N-13N and east of 19W. Scattered showers are along the ITCZ between 37W-48W. Scattered showers are also from 10N-13N between 43W-50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A N-S surface trough is over the W Gulf of Mexico along 93.5W from 18N-24N with isolated showers. In the upper levels, a sharp N-S upper-level trough is over the Gulf along 91W. Upper level diffluence east of the trough is producing scattered showers and isolated tstorms along with broken to overcast multi-layered clouds over the eastern Gulf east of 90W. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh E winds over much of the eastern Gulf, with moderate winds elsewhere. A surface trough extends over the NW Caribbean from central Cuba to 21N85W to the Yucatan Peninsula near 20N89W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over land over the Yucatan Peninsula. The weak low pressure trough along 93.5W will linger over the SW Gulf through today. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf late today, then extend from the Florida Panhandle to near Veracruz on Tue. NE winds will strengthen to moderate to fresh speeds across the western Gulf behind the front, with strong NW winds expected offshore of Veracruz early in the week. The front will stall and weaken over the central Gulf Wed through Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean. See the section above for details. A surface trough extends over the NW Caribbean from central Cuba to 21N85W to the Yucatan Peninsula near 20N89W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 17N-23N between 78.5W-84W, and inland over the Yucatan Peninsula from 17N-21N between 87W-91W. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh trades south of 15.5N between 61W-75W, with gentle to moderate trades elsewhere. The weak tropical wave over the central Caribbean near 71W will move west and cross the western Caribbean late today and Tue. The tropical wave along 57W will reach the Lesser Antilles later today. Expect fresh to locally strong winds as this wave passes over the eastern and central Caribbean through the middle of this week. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will prevail across much of the region for the next several days. Northerly swell generated by a cold front north of the area will cause seas to build east of the Lesser Antilles late today through Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two Gale Warnings are in effect for the Atlantic waters. Refer to the section above for details. Two tropical waves are in the tropical Atlantic. See the section above for details. The front mentioned above in the Special Features section and an upper-level low near 28N71W are inducing scattered moderate convection from 23N-31N between 63W-73W. Similar convection is seen farther east along the front from 28.5N-32N between 46W-48.5W. Scattered showers are elsewhere along the front. The latest ASCAT pass shows that the strong to near gale force winds are occurring north of a line from 26N80W to 26N58W to 32N47W. South of that line, winds are gentle or moderate from that line to 20N. To the east, surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the area anchored by a 1023 mb high centered near 31N35W. Expect strong to near gale force NE to E winds and very rough seas north of the 26N65W to 28N80W stationary front through today, with minimal gale conditions expected N of 28N between 67W and 70W through early this morning. The stationary front will lift northward as a warm front and dissipate today into Tue. NE swell will propagate S across the remaining waters east of the Bahamas through tonight, then gradually decay Tue through Thu. Another cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast late Tue and approach the NW Bahamas Wed and Thu. $$ Hagen