000 AXNT20 KNHC 062339 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 739 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A cold front extends across the west Atlantic waters from 31N48W to 28N77W. Gale force winds are occurring in the vicinity of the front north of 30N between 51W-54W and from 28N-30N between 67W-70W. Seas in these areas are ranging between 12-16 ft. These conditions will continue through early Mon, when the cold front is expected to dissipate. Refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 29W FROM 04n-15N, moving W at 10 kt. TPW imagery and model guidance depict this wave very well. Scattered showers are noted along and east of the wave axis between 20W-30W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 55W from 03N-20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is noted in satellite imagery and model guidance. Scattered moderate convection is south of 13N between 52W-58W. A central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 70W from 08N-22N, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is noted in satellite imagery and model guidance. Scattered showers are noted along the northern portion of the wave affecting Hispaniola and adjacent waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 14N17W to 10N29W to 07N36W. The ITCZ continues from 07N36W to 09N53W, then resumes W of a tropical wave near 09N57W to 08N62W. Besides the convection mentioned in the Tropical Wave section above, scattered moderate convection is south of the monsoon trough along the coast of W Africa from 08N-12N and east of 16W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is over the W Gulf of Mexico from 25N92W to 18N93W with scattered showers. In the upper levels, a sharp upper level trough is over the W Gulf along 92W. Upper level diffluence east of the trough is producing scattered moderate convection over the eastern Gulf east of 90W. A weak low pressure trough will linger near the Yucatan Peninsula through Mon. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf by late Mon, then extend from the Florida Panhandle to near Veracruz on Tue. NE winds will strengthen to moderate to fresh speeds across the western Gulf behind the front, with strong NW winds expected offshore of Veracruz early in the week. The front will stall and weaken over the central Gulf Wed through Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean. See the section above for details. A surface trough is over the NW Caribbean from 21N79W to 21N84W to 19N87W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted north of 17N and west of 79W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the basin. The tropical wave will continue moving west and cross the western Caribbean through Tue. The next tropical wave will reach the Lesser Antilles by Mon. Expect fresh to locally strong winds as this wave passes over the eastern and central Caribbean through the middle of this week. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail across much of the region for the next several days. Northerly swell generated by a cold front north of the area will cause seas to build east of the Lesser Antilles Mon through Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two Gale Warnings are in effect for the Atlantic waters. Refer to the section above for details. Two tropical waves are in the tropical Atlantic. See the section above for details. A cold front is over the western and central Atlantic from 31N48W to 28N77W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 27N56W to 26N60W. Another trough is analyzed in the west Atlantic from 22N78W to 26N71W. Scattered moderate convection prevails in the west Atlantic due to these features mainly west of 50W. To the east, surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the area anchored by a 1023 mb high centered near 36N19W. Expect strong to near gale force NE to E winds and very rough seas north of the front through Mon, and gale conditions possible N of 28N and E of 70W through tonight. The cold front will weaken and stall tonight, then lift northward and dissipate Mon into Tue. Northerly swell generated by the winds N of the front will propagate S across the remaining waters east of the Bahamas through Mon night, then gradually decay Tue through Thu. Another cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast late Tue and approach the NW Bahamas Wed and Thu. $$ ERA