000 AXNT20 KNHC 061043 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 643 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A cold front is currently dipping south over the western and central Atlantic from 31N54W to 29N70W to 30N81W. This cold front is generating strong to minimal gale force NE to E winds north of 30N between 51W-54W. Seas are expected to range between 12-16 ft in this area. This gale will end by early Monday, 07/0600 UTC. As the cold front continues to move south and east, expect another area of strong to minimal gale force winds and rough seas over the waters north of 29N and east of 71W to develop by Sunday, 06/1200 UTC as strong high pressure builds southward and tightens the offshore pressure gradient. Seas will range from 12-16 ft. This gale will continue through Monday, 07/1200 UTC. Refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 26W S of 15N, moving W at 10-15 kt. TPW imagery and model guidance depict this wave very well. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N-13N between 25W-29W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 52W S of 19N, moving W at 15 kt. This wave is noted in satellite imagery and model guidance. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N- 16N between 48W-54W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 67W S of 22N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis at this time. Isolated thunderstorms are occurring in the northern portion along the wave axis from 20N-22N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 14N16W to 11N26W to 08N36W. The ITCZ continues from 08N36W to 07N51W, then W of a tropical wave near 07N53W to 06N55W. Besides the convection mentioned in the Tropical Wave section above, scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 06N- 10N between 45W- 58W. There is also scattered moderate convection along the coast of W Africa from 03N- 10N and east of 23W. GULF OF MEXICO... A sharp upper level trough is pushing across the NW Gulf while an upper level ridge dominates the eastern Gulf. At the surface, a trough is analyzed in the southern Gulf of Mexico from 19N91W to 26N95W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along this feature from 18N-26N between 86W- 96W. Scattered showers are also moving across Florida into the eastern Gulf waters but no deep convection is occurring due to subsidence from the upper level ridge. There is a surface trough in the eastern Gulf from 25N84W to 30N86W. Latest scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate easterly winds in the east and central Gulf, with light winds elsewhere. A weak trough of low pressure will linger near the Yucatan Peninsula through Monday. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf Monday, then extend from the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz by Tuesday morning. NE winds will strengthen to moderate to fresh speeds across the western Gulf behind the front, with strong winds expected offshore of Veracruz early next week. The front will stall and weaken over the central and eastern Gulf by the middle of next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean. See the section above for details. An upper level trough extends across the northern Caribbean which is interacting with a plume of moisture south of Cuba. This is causing a cluster moderate convection to persist across the NW basin from 16N-22N between 78W-86W. A surface trough is analyzed near this convective activity from 18N87W to 21N80W. The eastern Pacific monsoon trough continues to enhance convection across the SW Caribbean, S of 14N between 73W-76W. Upper level ridging extends into the eastern Caribbean which is inhibiting deep convection although showers are moving across the Lesser Antilles westward into Puerto Rico. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate trades in the south- central Caribbean with light to gentle trades across the rest of the basin. A weak tropical wave over the Caribbean near 68W will continue moving west through the central Caribbean through tonight, then cross the western Caribbean Monday and Monday night. Moderate to fresh trades will persist over the central and eastern Caribbean into Monday. Another tropical wave will reach the Lesser Antilles Monday. Expect fresh to locally strong winds as this wave passes over the eastern and central Caribbean through the middle of next week. Elsewhere, N swell generated by a cold front north of the area will result in building seas east of the Lesser Antilles Monday through Tuesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two Gale Warnings are in effect for the west Atlantic waters. Refer to the section above for details. Two tropical waves are over the tropical Atlantic. See the section above for details. A cold front over the western and central Atlantic extends from a 1011 mb low near 30N54W to 29N69W to 30N81W. A pre- frontal trough extends from 26N68W to 29N57W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 100 nm of these features. An upper level low is located near 26N72W with a trough reflected at the surface from 22N78W to 28N71W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted from 21N-28N between 69W-75W. To the east, a 1024 mb surface high is over the E Atlantic near 37N19W with fair weather. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong ENE winds located behind the front, N of 29N between 57W- 80W. A cold front moving through the northern waters will induce gale conditions N of 29N between 66W and 70W into Monday morning, with near gale force NE to E winds all areas N of 26N through Monday. The cold front will weaken and stall Monday, then lift north and dissipate into Tuesday. Elsewhere, northerly swell generated by the strong winds will propagate southward across the remaining waters east of the Bahamas through Monday night. Another cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast late Tuesday and approach the NW Bahamas Wednesday. $$ AKR