000 AXNT20 KNHC 052354 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 754 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A cold front is currently dipping south over the western Atlantic from 30N67W to 29N74W to 30N78W. This system is expected to generate gale force winds beginning Sunday 06/0600 UTC within 60 nm of the NW semicircle of a low centered near 30.5N54.5W. Seas will range between 10-13 ft in this area. As this system moves east, a new area of gale force winds will develop by Sunday 06/1200 UTC within 90 nm in the NW semicircle of the low, centered near 30.5N53W. Seas will be 13-16 ft. Gale force winds will diminish by Monday, 07/1800 UTC. Refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 25W from 04N-15N, moving W at 10-15 kt. TPW imagery and model guidance depict this wave very well. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N-15N between 20W-30W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 50W from 03N-17N, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is noted in satellite imagery and model guidance. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-12N between 46W-52W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis from 21N64W to 07N67W, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is depicted in model guidance and TPW imagery shows abundant moisture behind this wave. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 14N17W to 07N26W to 06N36W. The ITCZ continues from 06N36W to 06N48W. Besides the convection mentioned in the Tropical Wave section above, scattered moderate convection is along the coast of W Africa from 04N-11N and east of 15W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1011 mb surface low is analyzed in the central Gulf of Mexico near 24N90W. A surface trough extends from 26N95W to the low to 22N88W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of these features mainly south of 25N between 84W-91W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate winds across the basin. In the upper levels, a sharp upper level trough is off the coast of Texas. Upper level diffluence E of the trough is enhancing the convection over the southern Gulf waters. Weak low pressure over the south-central Gulf will continue to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight. A broad trough will persist over the southern Gulf Sun and Mon. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf on Mon, then extend from the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz by Tue morning. NE winds will strengthen to moderate to fresh speeds across the western Gulf behind the front, with strong winds expected offshore of Veracruz early next week. The front will stall and weaken over the central Gulf by the middle of next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean. See the section above for details. A surface trough is over Cuba with scattered moderate convection affecting the island and adjacent waters mainly north of 16N. To the south, scattered moderate convection prevails over Panama, Costa Rica and adjacent waters due to the proximity of the monsoon trough. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the basin. The tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean will reach the central Caribbean Sun morning, then cross the western Caribbean Mon and Tue. Moderate to fresh trades will persist over the central and eastern Caribbean through the weekend. Another tropical wave will reach the Lesser Antilles Mon. Expect fresh to locally strong winds as this wave passes over the eastern and central Caribbean through the middle of next week. Elsewhere, northerly swell generated by a cold front north of the area will result in building seas east of the Lesser Antilles Mon through Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two Gale Warnings are in effect for the west Atlantic waters. Refer to the section above for details. Two tropical waves are over the tropical Atlantic. See the section above for details. A cold front over the W Atlantic extends from 30N67W to 29N74W to 30N78W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. A pre-frontal trough extends from 31N55W to 28N61W to 27N68W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm on either sides of the trough. To the east, a 1022 mb surface high is over the E Atlantic near 32N28W with fair weather. The cold front entering the northern waters will generate strong to near gale force NE to E winds north of 29N beginning late tonight. Expect strong to gale force winds and rough seas over the waters north of 29N and east of 71W Sun and Sun night as strong high pressure builds southward and tightens the offshore pressure gradient. The weakening front will stall Sun night before lifting northward as a warm front Mon. Elsewhere, northerly swell generated by the strong winds will propagate southward across the remaining waters east of the Bahamas through Mon night. Looking ahead, the next cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast by mid-week $$ ERA