000 AXNT20 KNHC 051045 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 645 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A cold front entering the northern waters of the western Atlantic will generate strong to near gale force NE to E winds over the waters N of 29N and E of 75W beginning tonight, 06/0600 UTC, and strong to minimal gale force winds over the waters N of 28N and E of 71W Sunday and Sunday night. These minimal gale force winds will diminish by Monday. N swell generated by the strong winds will propagate through the remaining waters NE and E of the Bahamas through Monday evening. Seas will build to 12-17 feet. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the cold front. The front will stall and weaken Sunday night, then lift N as a warm front on Monday. Refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 22W from 15N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N- 12N between 22W- 28W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W from 16N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-09N between 46W-48W. An E Caribbean tropical wave is along 64W from 21N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are within the vicinity of the wave with isolated thunderstorms occurring near the Leeward Islands. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 14N17W to 12N23W to 08N31W. The ITCZ continues from 08N31W to 06N45W, then continues W of a tropical wave near 06N47W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N53W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection is from 04N-12N between 27W-57W. Scattered moderate convection is moving off the coast of Africa from 05N-14N and E of 20W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1011 mb low pressure is analyzed in the southern Gulf near 22N90W with a trough extending along the low from 18N89W to 26N94W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within the vicinity of this feature from 19N-27N between 86W-94W. Otherwise, broad mid- level high pressure still dominates the Gulf which is continuing fair weather across the rest of the basin. Latest scatterometer data depicts light to gentle easterly winds across the Gulf. High pressure will remain centered north of the basin through early next week. A cold front will enter the northern and western Gulf by Monday, reach the central and southwest Gulf Tuesday, then weaken and lift back N as a warm front Wednesday. High pressure following the front will weaken as it slides eastward through Wednesday. A broad trough of low pressure over and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula will drift W into the Bay of Campeche during the next few days. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... A robust upper level trough is interacting with a plume of moisture in the NW Caribbean. This is giving way to numerous strong convection south of Cuba moving across the Cayman Islands, from 18N-21N between 78W-85W. Scattered thunderstorms are also noted along the northern coast of Honduras and the Yucatan. A surface trough is analyzed near the Yucatan Passage from 20N86W to 22N84W. The eastern Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing convection across Colombia and the SW Caribbean with the strongest convective activity occurring over land. However, scattered moderate convection is noted S of 12 between 76W-82W. Latest scatterometer data depicts light to gentle trades across the basin with moderate trades in the south- central Caribbean. Fresh winds are also observed in the Gulf of Venezuela. A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean near 66W will reach the central Caribbean Sunday morning, then cross the western Caribbean Monday through Tuesday. Moderate to fresh trades will continue over the central and eastern Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds over the S central Caribbean could become strong by the middle of next week. N swell generated by a cold front N of the area will cause seas to build E of the Lesser Antilles Monday through Tuesday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A closed mid-level low is centered near 28N72W. At the surface, a 1011 mb surface low is located near 29N63W with a trough extending along the low from 25N69W to 35N51W. Another surface trough extends across the Bahamas from 23N77W to 29N69W. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are near these features from 23N-30N between 68W-74W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 22N-34N between 53W-65W. Surface ridging extends across the rest of the basin anchored by a 1021 mb high near 30N34W. A cold front entering the northern waters will generate strong to near gale force NE to E winds over the waters N of 29N and E of 75W beginning tonight, and strong to minimal gale force winds over the waters N of 28N and E of 71W Sunday and Sunday night. These winds will diminish Monday. N swell generated by the strong winds will propagate through the remaining waters NE and E of the Bahamas through Monday evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the cold front. The front will stall and weaken Sunday night, then lift N as a warm front Monday. $$ AKR