000 AXNT20 KNHC 042356 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 756 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A cold front will move into the northern waters on Sat followed by strong high pressure. The resultant tight pressure gradient will generate strong to near gale force NE to E winds over the waters N of 29N and E of 75W beginning late on Sat, and strong to minimal gale force winds over the waters N of 28N and E of 71W Sun and Sun night. These winds will diminish Mon. A gale is forecast for the western Atlantic starting Sunday 06/0600 UTC. Refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W from 15N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Total precipitable water imagery depicts the wave. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 03N-05N between 17W-21W and along the coast of W Africa .230 nm east of the wave, from 09N-13N between 15W-18W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W from 14N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-09N between 42W-46W. An E Caribbean tropical wave is along 61W/62W from 06N-20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Recent ASCAT imagery depicts the wave very well. Scattered showers are seen in the vicinity of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N15W, to 07N29W to 05N40W. The ITCZ extends west of a tropical wave from 06N45W to the coast of French Guiana near 04N52W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 03N-09N between 22W-40W. Scattered showers are from 05N-08N between 49W-54W. GULF OF MEXICO... A low centered over NE Texas near 29N95W enhancing a few showers near the Texas coast. Mid level divergence is enhancing an area of scattered showers and tstorms in the Central Gulf. At the surface, a 1011 mb low is centered N of the Yucatan Peninsula near 22N88W. 10-15 kt winds are present north of the low near 22N-28N and west of 83W. A surface trough extends from 24N87W to the low center to N Guatemala near 17N89W. Scattered moderate convection is near the trough from 23N-25N between 85W- 88W with scattered showers and tstorms in the Yucatan Channel. High pressure will remain centered north of the basin through early next week. A cold front will enter the northern and western Gulf Mon. It will reach the central and southwest Gulf Tue, then weaken and become stationary Wed. High pressure following the front will weaken as it slides eastward through Wed. A broad trough of low pressure just north of the Yucatan Peninsula will move W over the Bay of Campeche during the next few days. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean. See above. Interaction with an upper ridge centered over the Yucatan Channel and an upper level low over the Western Atlantic is producing an area of diffluence from the Southern Bahamas and across Cuba. In the latest low level water vapor imagery, plenty of moisture is noticeable in the NW Caribbean which is enhancing a broad area of scattered moderate strong convection from Hispaniola, Windward Passage, across Cuba to the Cayman Islands to the Yucatan Channel. Clusters of scattered moderate strong convection are over the NW Caribbean from 18N-22N between 70W-85W. Further S, scattered moderate strong convection is over the SW Caribbean from 10N-13N between 73W-75W and the coast of Panama and Costa Rica. A tropical wave will move across the eastern Caribbean through Sat night, then across the central Caribbean Sun and Mon, then across the western Caribbean Mon night through Tue night. Moderate to fresh trades will continue over the central and eastern Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds over the S central Caribbean could become strong by the middle of next week. N swell generated by a cold front N of the area will cause seas to build E of the Lesser Antilles Mon through Tue night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper low is centered over 27N73W with a surface trough extending from 29N76W to 23N73W. Water vapor imagery shows abundant dry air W of the low from 74W to the coast of FL and most of the moisture content to the east. A 1014 mb low is further east at 29N64W with a trough extending from 32N59W to 23N69W. Scattered moderate strong convection is mainly south of 24N to the coast of Hispaniola and Cuba between 68W-77W. Scattered showers and tstorms are present from 23N-29N between 69W-73W. Scattered moderate convection is from 22N-29N between 54W-61W north of the tropical wave along 61/62W. A 1022 mb high is over the central Atlantic remains in control. A cold front will move into the northern waters on at followed by strong high pressure. The resultant tight pressure gradient will generate strong to near gale force NE to E winds over the waters N of 29N and E of 75W beginning late on Sat, and strong to minimal gale force winds over the waters N of 28N and E of 71W Sun and Sun night. These winds will diminish Mon. N swell generated by the strong winds will propagate through the remaining waters NE and E of the Bahamas through Mon evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the cold front. The front will stall and weaken Sun night, then lift N as a warm front Mon. $$ MMTorres