000 AXNT20 KNHC 040005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT Thu Oct 3 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave over W Africa is along 15W from 18N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Total precipitable water imagery depicts well the wave. Scattered moderate to strong convection extends 130 nm west of the wave and 190 nm east of the wave mainly N from 12N-15N. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 90 nm of the wave axis. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W from 15N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N- 08N between 41W-43W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends along 06N58W to 12N57W to 18N55W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Recent ASCAT imagery depicts the wave very well. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 12N- 18N between 54W-60W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are also noted over Guyana 100 to 150 nm W of the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 13N16W to 07N20W to 06N32W. The ITCZ extends from 06N32W to 06N41W, then resumes west of the tropical wave near 06N43W to 10N56W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection is from 03N-08N between 20W-33W. Similar convection is from 06N-10N between 45W-48W. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level low pressure is over 24N96W enhancing scattered showers and tstorms over the basin mainly west of 89W. A 1018 mb high centered off the coast of South Carolina near 32N75W is keeping a easterly moderate to fresh winds across the northern half of the basin, from 23N-29N. Scattered showers are over the Straits of Florida and across the Yucatan Channel from 21N-23N between 83W-88W. Weak high pressure will remain centered northeast of the region through early next week. A weak cold front will approach the far northern Gulf on Fri and become stationary through the weekend. A stronger cold front may move over the northern and western Gulf early next week. A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean will move westward across the Yucatan Peninsula and to over the Bay of Campeche during the next few days. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected with this feature. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1009 mb low pressure center is near 17N85W in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitable water imagery indicates higher moisture content concentrated in the NW Caribbean near the low. A surface trough extends from 23N85W to the low center to 15N85W. Widely scattered moderate strong convection is within 60 nm of the trough axis and affecting the islands from Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cuba, Cayman Islands, Yucatan Peninsula to the Gulf of Honduras and Honduras. The eastern extent of the E Pacific monsoon trough is over the SW Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is seen near the coastal areas of Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica. A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean will move westward to across the northern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula on Fri and Fri night. A tropical wave will reach the Lesser Antilles tonight, move across the eastern Caribbean Fri through Sat evening and across the central Caribbean Sun through early next week. Moderate to fresh winds will dominate the central and eastern Caribbean waters through the entire period. Otherwise, northerly swell associated with a backdoor cold front N of the area will support 8 ft seas east of the Lesser Antilles Mon and Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak 1014 mb low pressure is over the W Atlantic near 26N73W with a trough extending from 29N72W to 25N73W. Around 400 nm E of the 1014 mb low another low pressure is present near 27N65W with a trough extending from 29N63W to 25N68W. No significant convection is noted near the first low pressure; however, the low to the east is showing more scattered shower and tstorm activity in the vicinity extending 150 nm W of the trough and 180 nm E of the trough. In the upper levels further east near 25N51W, upper level diffluence is over the central Atlantic producing scattered moderate strong convection from 22N-27N between 49W-57W. A trough northeast of the Bahamas will weaken through Sat. A cold front will move into the northern waters on Sat, with strong to near gale force northeast to east winds affecting the waters N of the Bahamas through Mon. However, building seas associated with the front will affect the waters east of the Bahamas through Tue. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. The front will stall and weaken Sun night, then lift northward as a warm front early next week. $$ MMTorres