797 AXNT20 KNHC 031736 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 136 PM EDT Thu Oct 3 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over W Africa along 15W from 05N-18N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Total precipitable water imagery depicts the wave. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-13N between 12W-16W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 90 nm of the wave axis. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W from 03N-16N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-08N between 38W-42W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W/57W from 04N-17N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Recent ASCAT imagery depicts the wave very well. Isolated moderate convection is from 14N-18N between 52W- 57W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 120 nm of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 14N17W to 08N20W to 07N29W. The ITCZ extends from 07N29W to 07N40W. The ITCZ continues W of a tropical wave from 07N43W to 09N55W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, widely scattered moderate convection is from 03N-09N between 18W-30W. Similar convection is from 06N-12N between 45W- 49W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 mb high is centered off the coast of South Carolina near 33N75W. 10-15 kt easterly surface flow is over the N Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers are over the Straits of Florida. In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the NW Gulf near 24N96W. Isolated moderate convection is over the W Gulf W of 90W. Weak high pressure will remain centered northeast of the region through early next week. A weak cold front will approach the far northern Gulf on Fri and become stationary through the weekend. A stronger cold front may move over the northern and western Gulf early next week. A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean will move westward across the Yucatan Peninsula and to over the Bay of Campeche during the next few days. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected with this feature. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 19.5N85W in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough extends from 23N84W to the low center to 17N86W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the trough axis. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the S coast of Cuba from 17N-22N between 74W-83W. The eastern extent of the E Pacific monsoon trough is over the SW Caribbean. Widely scattered moderate convection is S of 12N between 76W-84W. Elsewhere, isolated moderate convection is advecting over the Leeward Islands and the Windward Islands from the Atlantic, E of 63W. A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean will move westward to across the northern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula on Fri and Fri night. A tropical wave will reach the Lesser Antilles tonight, move across the eastern Caribbean Fri through Sat evening and across the central Caribbean Sun through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak 1014 mb low is over the W Atlantic near 27N73W. A surface trough extends from 31N71W to the low center to 26N73W. Another 1014 mb low is over the W Atlantic near 28N65W. A surface trough extends from 30N62W to the low center to 25N68W. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm of the trough axis. In the upper levels, upper level diffluence is over the central Atlantic producing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 22N-29N between 49W-59W. A trough northeast of the Bahamas will weaken through Fri. A cold front will move into the northern waters on Sat, with strong northeast to east winds and building seas expected north of the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. The front will stall and weaken Sun night, then lift northward as a warm front early next week. $$ Formosa