000
AXNT20 KNHC 031059
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Thu Oct 03 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1040 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W/39W, from 18N 
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Possible rainshowers are 
within 600 nm to the NE of the wave, and within 700 nm of the 
wave from 12N to 20N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 15N54W 11N56W 07N58W,
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated 
moderate is within 600 nm to the NE of the line that extends 
from 11N63W to 07N47W.  

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of 
Senegal near 14N17W, to 07N23W. The ITCZ continues from 07N23W 
to 06N26W 06N37W 07N40W and 10N54W. Precipitation: widely 
scattered moderate to isolated strong within 600 nm to the SE of 
the monsoon trough from 20W eastward. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong within 180 nm to the south of the monsoon trough 
between 24W and 28W; within 60 nm to the north of the ITCZ 
between 33W and 40W, and within 120 nm to the south of the ITCZ 
between 30W and 40W. 
  
GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the SW corner 
of the Gulf of Mexico, near 23N96W, about 170 nm to the SSE of 
the southernmost point of the Texas Gulf coast. Broad upper 
level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico. 
Precipitation: isolated moderate from 28N southward.

A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 19N85W in the NW corner of 
the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough extends from the low 
pressure center into the Yucatan Channel. It is possible that 
some of the precipitation that is in the SE corner of the Gulf 
of Mexico may be related to the 1008 mb low pressure center.

The current 1008 mb NW Caribbean Sea low pressure center will 
drift NW, and open into a trough by Friday night, and move into 
the Yucatan Peninsula. A cold front will move into the northern 
Gulf of Mexico on Monday night. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 19N85W in the NW corner of 
the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough extends from the low 
pressure center into the Yucatan Channel. Another part of the 
trough extends southwestward to central Honduras. Precipitation:
isolated moderate from the easternmost coastal point of 
Honduras, northward, to the Yucatan Channel, from 80W westward, 
to the coastal plains of the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize and 
Guatemala, and western sections of Honduras. Scattered moderate 
to strong, in the waters that are between Haiti and Jamaica, and 
within 160 nm of the southern coast of Cuba. 

The current 1008 mb NW Caribbean Sea low pressure will drift W 
to NW today. A tropical wave will reach the Lesser Antilles 
tonight, and it will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea on 
Friday and on Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The remnants of KAREN are a 1012 mb low pressure center that is 
near 27N66W. A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough extends from 
30N63W, to the low center to 24N70W. A second surface trough 
extends from the low center to 23N67W. Precipitation: widely 
scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong from 20N to 
30N between 46W and the troughs and low pressure center.
 
A stationary front passes through 32N30W to 30N36W to 31N49W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong within 140 nm 
to the south of the front between 39W and 43W.

A trough NE of the Bahamas will weaken through Friday. A cold 
front will move into the northern waters on Saturday. Expect 
strong NE to E winds and building seas to the north of the 
front. The front will stall and weaken on Sunday night, and then 
move northward as a warm front early next week. 

$$
mt