000 AXNT20 KNHC 022244 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 644 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2320 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W, from 18N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Light showers are along the wave but no significant convection is noted at this time. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W, from 14N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 08N-13N between 55W-59W. Enhanced rainfall is likely for the southern Windward Islands and SE Caribbean tonight and Thursday. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W, stretching across northeast Honduras southward into northern Costa Rica and into the eastern Pacific Ocean, and is moving W around 10-15 kt. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 150 nm of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W to 07N24W. The ITCZ extends from 07N24W to 07N34W, then resumes W of a tropical wave from 07N35W to 08N46W to 09N56W. The ITCZ continues W of another tropical wave near 09N57W to the coast of Guyana near 08N59W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen moving off the coast of Africa near the monsoon trough, from 07N-14N and E of 20W. Scattered showers are along and within 150 nm of the ITCZ between 25W- 53W. GULF OF MEXICO... Mid level and surface ridging continue across the Gulf of Mexico. The eastern Gulf remains quiet with a few scattered showers moving from Florida to adjacent waters. Scattered thunderstorms are seen in the western Gulf from 20N-30N between 91W-96W. The diurnally-driven Yucatan trough is analyzed in the Bay of Campeche from 19N93W to 21N95W. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh ENE winds in the eastern Gulf with light to gentle winds in the western Gulf. The pressure gradient between high pressure over the southeastern U.S. and weak low pressure in the NW Caribbean will support fresh NE to E winds over the east-central Gulf through Thursday night. The low will pass near or over the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday night, then move into the SW Gulf on Friday and open up into a surface trough this weekend. NE winds may freshen over the NW Gulf Monday and Monday night as a cold front drops southward into the northern waters. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad cyclonic circulation continues across the western Caribbean with a 1007 mb low centered near 19N84W and a surface trough extending along the low from 17N88W to 22N81W. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the Greater Antilles and the NW Caribbean, from 15N-23N between 67W-85W. The eastern portion of Puerto Rico through the Lesser Antilles remains fair as an upper and mid-level ridge continues to prevent deep convection across this area. However, some streamer showers are still noted along these islands. Latest scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades in the eastern and NW Caribbean with light winds elsewhere. A broad area of low pressure over the NW Caribbean will slowly move NW toward the Yucatan Peninsula and Channel through Thursday night. Moderate trade winds in the east-central Caribbean will increase to fresh tonight through Friday night, then remain moderate to fresh Saturday through Monday. A tropical wave will reach the Lesser Antilles by Thursday night, move over the eastern Caribbean Friday through Saturday, then cross the central Caribbean Sunday into Monday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A narrow ENE-WSW upper level trough is centered over the western Atlantic. At the surface, a 1010 mb low is located near 26N70W with a trough extending along the low from 21N71W to 30N69W. Another trough is noted near this area from 24N68W to 28N63W. Scattered moderate convection is seen near these features from 21N-30N between 57W-67W. Two weaker troughs are noted in the central Atlantic, from 16N56W to 21N60W with no significant convection associated with it. The other trough extends from 20N55W to 27N46W with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms seen from 21N-29N between 46W-56W. A cold front enters the waters near 31N31W and extends westward to 29N38W and stalls from that point to 31N47W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen along this front N of 26N between 28W-44W. A 1019 mb high pressure is analyzed near 26N36W. Moderate NE winds will persist through Thursday between a broad area of low pressure NE of the Bahamas and high pressure north of the area. Wind speeds will diminish on Friday as the low moves NE away from the region. A cold front will drop southward into the northern waters on Saturday, with strong NE to E winds following frontal passage and seas building to 8-12 ft. Strongest winds and highest seas are expected north of 27N and east of 77W. The front is expected to stall over the northern waters on Sunday, then lift northward as a warm front early next week. $$ AKR