000 AXNT20 KNHC 021113 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Wed Oct 02 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Hurricane Lorenzo, at 02/0900 UTC, is near 42.3N 29.4W. Lorenzo is about 190 nm/355 km to the NNE of Flores Island, in the western Azores. Lorenzo is moving NE, or 40 degrees, 37 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 80 knots with gusts to 100 knots. Precipitation: Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong within 200 nm to 600 nm of the center in the NE semicircle. Lorenzo is a category 1 hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A hurricane warning and a tropical storm warning have been announced for different parts of the Azores. A warning typically is issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm-force winds or hurricane-force winds. These are conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for LORENZO are available via the WMO header WTNT33 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for LORENZO are available via the WMO header WTNT23 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT3. Please go to the website, also, www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W/30W, from 18N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Possible rainshowers are within 270 nm to the east of the wave, and within 420 nm to the west of the wave, from 10N southward; and from 16N to 24N between 23W and 31W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53W/54W, from 14N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 06N to 14N between 40W and 60W. Some of the precipitation also is related to the ITCZ. The Caribbean Sea tropical wave that was along 82W/83W has been weakening with time. It is being stretched to the north and northwest with time. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W, to 06N24W. The ITCZ continues from 04N31W to 07N41W 07N44W 09N46W, and to 06N52W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 06N to 14N between 40W and 60W. Isolated moderate to locally strong from 01N to 14N from 40W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... Satellite imagery and GFS model data show middle level to upper level NE wind flow, that is part of larger-scale anticyclonic wind flow, in the Gulf of Mexico. A NE-to-SW oriented surface ridge spans the Gulf of Mexico. Rainshowers are possible from 28N southward. The pressure gradient, between high pressure in the SE U.S.A. and weak low pressure in the NW Caribbean Sea, will support fresh NE to E winds in the SE Gulf of Mexico today. The low pressure center will become diffuse in the SW Gulf of Mexico on Thursday, after crossing the Yucatan Peninsula tonight. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1007 mb low pressure center is about 160 nm to the S of NW Cuba. Precipitation: Scattered moderate to isolated strong from the western coastal waters of Jamaica to the southern coast of Cuba. Scattered moderate to strong in clusters is in the waters that are between Cuba and Haiti and Jamaica. A weak surface trough extends from N Colombia to south central coastal sections of the Dominican Republic. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong between the Mona Passage and 76W, including in the coastal waters of Colombia. A broad area of low pressure over the NW Caribbean will slowly move NW toward the Yucatan Peninsula through Thu. Trade winds in the east-central Caribbean will increase tonight. A tropical wave will reach the Lesser Antilles on Fri, then cross the eastern Caribbean this weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The remnants of KAREN are a 1011 mb low pressure center that is near 29N67W. A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough extends from the low center to 27N58W. A second surface trough extends from the low center to north central coastal Hispaniola. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated strong from 20N northward between 50W and 80W. The gradient between a trough NE of the Bahamas and high pressure north of the area will support moderate to fresh trades east of Florida today. A cold front will drop southward into the northern waters this weekend, with fresh to strong NE to E winds expected behind the front, and seas building to 8-10 ft. $$ mt