000 AXNT20 KNHC 012351 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 751 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2320 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Lorenzo, at 01/2100 UTC, is near 37.0N 35.5W, about 248 nm SW of the Flores Island in the western Azores. Lorenzo is moving to the NE at 25 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 85 knots with gusts to 105 knots. Scattered moderate to strong convection is present in the NE quad out to 250 nm from the center and 250 nm in the NW quad. Scattered moderate convection is present in the SE quad out to 200 nm. Hurricane Lorenzo is expected to move faster to the NE through Thursday, then slow down and turn eastward by Thursday. The center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores late tonight or early Wednesday. Only slow weakening is expected during the next 48 hours. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC, or www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W, from 17N southward, moving W at 10 knots. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are in the vicinity of the wave axis from 03N-08N between 20W-28W and from 14N-20N between 21W-27W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 49W, from 17N southward, moving W at 10-15 knots. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted near the wave from 09N-14N between 46W-51W. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 79W, from 16N southward, moving W at 10 knots. This wave is approaching a 1007 mb low near 19N80W which is about 140 nm west of Jamaica. Numerous strong convection is seen across the Greater Antilles near this wave and low, mostly across Jamaica and Cuba from 15N-22N between 76W-82W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea- Bissau near 11N15W to 04N30W. The ITCZ continues from 04N30W to 09N48W, then resumes W of a tropical wave near 09N50W to the coast of Guyana near 06N57W. Scattered moderate convection is seen in the vicinity along the monsoon trough 02N-09N between 15W-22W and along the ITCZ from 06N-14N between 41W-46W and between 51W-58W. GULF OF MEXICO... A strong upper level high is centered over the SE U.S. and extends across the Gulf of Mexico. Strong subsidence is preventing deep convection. However, thunderstorms are noted along the Florida Panhandle N of 29N and between 84W-86W. Showers are also passing through SW Florida and moving over the water. The latest scatterometer data indicated moderate to fresh ENE winds in the eastern Gulf, with gentle to moderate easterly winds in the western Gulf. The pressure gradient between a high pressure ridge along the northern Gulf coast and weak low pressure over the western Caribbean will briefly support fresh to strong winds over the SE Gulf tonight. This gradient will maintain generally moderate to fresh easterly winds across the Gulf through Thursday. The low will slowly move NW toward the Yucatan Peninsula tonight through Thursday, then cross the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday night and move into the Bay of Campeche on Friday. Wind speeds will likely diminish this weekend as the weak low or surface trough lingers over the SW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A mid-level ridge is centered over the Lesser Antilles which is bringing fair weather conditions across these islands and into eastern Puerto Rico. Along western Puerto Rico/the Mona Passage westward into Hispaniola, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection can be seen from 15N-20N between 67W- 73W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also seen near the Yucatan through the Gulf of Honduras. The latest scatterometer shows gentle to moderate E-NE winds in the eastern Caribbean. Light winds are seen in the western basin with moderate to fresh winds near Cuba and the western Yucatan. Gentle to moderate trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean will increase to moderate to fresh Wednesday night and prevail through Saturday. A tropical wave over the SW Caribbean will move across Central America Wednesday and into the east Pacific on Thursday. The next tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean on Friday. Elsewhere, a broad area of low pressure over the western Caribbean will slowly move NW toward the Gulf of Mexico tonight through Thursday night. Showers and thunderstorms will continue over the NW Caribbean as this low progresses toward the Yucatan Peninsula. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two lows are seen in the western Atlantic. A 1010 mb low is seen near 23N70W with a trough extending along that low from 21N73W to 25N68W. This particular low has a low chance of development in the next 48 hours. A 1011 mb low is seen near 30N67W with a trough extending along the low from 26N69W to 32N64W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring near these features from 20N- 31N between 57W-71W. A trough is also seen in the central Atlantic from 25N48W to 31N41W with no significant convection associated with it. Surface ridging extends across the rest of the Atlantic. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh NE winds in the western Atlantic, N of 23N and W of 70W. Easterly swell generated by distant Hurricane Lorenzo will affect portions of the SW N Atlantic through Wednesday. Weak low pressure SW of Bermuda, along with an associated surface trough, will drift NE through Friday. The pressure gradient between this low and high pressure north of the area will support moderate to fresh NE to E trades with seas to 8 ft through tonight. A cold front will drop southward into the northern waters this weekend, with fresh to strong NE to E winds expected behind the front and seas building greater than 8 ft north of 27N. $$ AKR