000 AXNT20 KNHC 011039 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Tue Oct 01 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Hurricane Lorenzo, at 01/0900 UTC, is near 33.4N 39.7W. Lorenzo is moving NE, or 40 degrees, 19 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 85 knots with gusts to 105 knots. Precipitation: Scattered strong within 120 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Scattered moderate to strong elsewhere within 480 nm of the center in the N semicircle. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong remainder of area within 240 nm of the center in the S semicircle. Lorenzo is a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A hurricane warning and a tropical storm warning have been announced for different parts of the Azores. A warning typically is issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm-force winds or hurricane-force winds. These are conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for LORENZO are available via the WMO header WTNT33 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for LORENZO are available via the WMO header WTNT23 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT3. Please go to the website, also, www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21W/22W, from 18N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 120 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 13N to 15N. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W/47W, from 17N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: any nearby precipitation is related to the ITCZ. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 76W/77W, from 16N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. This wave is moving through the area of the monsoon trough in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The wave also is approaching the area of a 1007 mb low pressure center, that is just to the west of Jamaica. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N15W, to 07N24W, and 07N29W. The ITCZ continues from 07N29W to 07N38W, and 09N42W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong within 200 nm to the N of the line 09N47W 06N52W 06N57W, related to speed convergence. Isolated moderate to locally strong within 460 nm to the S of the monsoon trough between 10W and 15W, and within 270 nm on either side of the rest of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Satellite imagery and GFS model data show middle level to upper level anticyclonic wind flow in the Gulf of Mexico. A NE-to-SW oriented surface ridge spans the Gulf of Mexico. A northern Gulf of Mexico coast surface ridge will maintain moderate to fresh E winds in the basin through Thursday. Weak low pressure, developing in the western Caribbean Sea, will support fresh NE to E winds in the SE Gulf of Mexico through Wednesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1007 mb low pressure center is about 75 nm to the WNW of Jamaica. Precipitation: Scattered moderate to strong within 120 nm of the center in the N semicircle. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 15N northward from the low pressure center westward. A 76W/77W tropical wave and its precipitation are just to the east of the low pressure center. An upper level inverted trough extends from the central sections of the Caribbean Sea, toward the SW corner of the area. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 11N at the coast of Venezuela to 16N between 71W and 75W. The monsoon trough is along 11N/13N from 75W to Central America. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 15N southward from 73W westward. Swell, generated by Hurricane Lorenzo, will continue to affect the tropical N Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea passages through Wednesday. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail across the rest of the Caribbean Sea. A broad area of low pressure, that is developing in the western Caribbean Sea, will move NW, toward the Gulf of Mexico through Thursday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The remnants of KAREN are a 1011 mb low pressure center that is near 30N64W. A surface trough extends from the low pressure center to 29N63W and 26N68W. A dissipating stationary front is along 31N/34N between 54W and the low pressure center. Weak surface low pressure extends southwestward from the 1011 mb low pressure center, toward the Windward Passage. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 520 nm to the SE of the line 33N64W 28N70W 23N80W at the coast of Cuba. Swell, generated from Hurricane Lorenzo, will affect sections of the SW N Atlantic Ocean through Wednesday. A surface trough, to the NE of the Bahamas, will drift SW toward southern Florida through Wednesday night, and enhance NE to E trade winds in the northern Bahamas. $$ mt