545 AXNT20 KNHC 010549 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Tue Oct 01 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Hurricane Lorenzo, at 01/0300 UTC, is near 32.0N 41.2W. Lorenzo is moving NE, or 35 degrees, 17 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 90 knots with gusts to 110 knots. Precipitation: Scattered moderate to strong within 450 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, and within 120 nm of the center in the SW quadrant. Lorenzo is a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A hurricane warning and a tropical storm warning have been announced for different parts of the Azores. A warning typically is issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm-force winds or hurricane-force winds. These are conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for LORENZO are available via the WMO header WTNT33 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for LORENZO are available via the WMO header WTNT23 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT3. Please go to the website, also, www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 20W/21W, from 18N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: nothing significant. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W/45W, from 17N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: any nearby precipitation is related to the ITCZ. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W/76W, from 18N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong in the waters between Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti. Scattered moderate to isolated strong within 270 nm to the west of the wave from 13N to 17N, and in Colombia from 03N to 11N between 73W and 77w. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 11N15W, to 07N23W, and 09N36W. The ITCZ continues from 09N36W to 09N45W 08N48W, and to the coast of French Guiana near 05N52W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 270 nm S of monsoon trough between 23W and 31W, and within 150 nm N of the monsoon trough between 24W and 28W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 180 nm to the N of the ITCZ between the 43W/45W tropical wave and 51W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere from 09N southward from 51W westward. GULF OF MEXICO... Satellite imagery and GFS model data show middle level to upper level anticyclonic wind flow in the Gulf of Mexico. A NE-to-SW oriented surface ridge spans the Gulf of Mexico. A northern Gulf of Mexico coast surface ridge generally will maintain moderate to fresh winds in the basin through Thursday. Weak low pressure, developing in the western Caribbean Sea, will support fresh to locally strong NE to E winds in the SE Gulf of Mexico through mid week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1007 mb low pressure center is about 90 nm to the SW of SE Cuba. A 73W/75W tropical wave and its precipitation are just to the east of the low pressure center. Swell, generated from Hurricane Lorenzo, will continue to propagate into the tropical N Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea passages into Wednesday. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail across the rest of the Caribbean Sea. It is possible that a broad area of low pressure may form in the western Caribbean Sea by the middle of the week, and then move NW toward the Gulf of Mexico.. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The remnants of KAREN are a 1009 mb low pressure center that is near 31N64W. A surface trough extends from the low pressure center to 29N64W and 25N66W. A warm front extends from the 1009 mb low pressure center beyond 33N60W. Weak surface low pressure extends southwestward from the 1009 mb low pressure center, toward the Windward Passage. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong within 210 nm on either side of 32N53W 31N63W 25N69W, to the Windward Passage. Swell, generated from Hurricane Lorenzo, will propagate into parts of the SW N Atlantic Ocean through Wednesday. A surface trough, to the N of Puerto Rico, will drift westward into the SE Bahamas by Wednesday, and then to the NW Bahamas by Thursday night. The trough will support fresh to locally strong NE-to-E breezes in the NW Bahamas and the adjacent waters, through Tuesday night. $$ mt