000 AXNT20 KNHC 302326 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 726 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Lorenzo is centered near 30.9N 42.1W at 30/2100 UTC or 860 nm WSW of the Azores moving NNE at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 28N-37N between 35W-45W. A turn to the northeast is expected later tonight, with an increasing forward speed tonight through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on Wednesday. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC, or www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 20W, from 17N southward, moving W at 10-15 knots. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the wave axis. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W/44W, from 12N southward, moving W at 10 knots. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the wave axis. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W, from 19N southward, moving W at 5-10 knots. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over Hispaniola,E Cuba, Jamaica, and N Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 06N23W to 09N34W. The ITCZ continues at that point to 10N42W, then resumes west of the tropical wave near 09N46W to the coast of N Brazil near 04N51W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 03N-09N between 23W-30W, and from 06N-11N between 35W-41W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1021 mb high is centered over N Alabama near 34N86W. 10-15 kt E to SE return flow is over the Gulf of Mexico. The Gulf of mexico is mostly void of precipitation. In the upper levels, a large upper level high is centered over E Texas near 31N91W. Strong subsidence covers all of the Gulf. A high pressure ridge along the northern Gulf coast will generally maintain moderate to fresh winds over the basin through Thu. Weak low pressure developing over the western Caribbean will support fresh to locally strong NE to E winds over the SE Gulf through mid week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is along 75W. See above. A 1007 mb low is centered near the Cayman Islands at 19N80W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the center. Elsewhere, clusters of scattered moderate convection is over Central America and the SW Caribbean. Swell generated from Hurricane Lorenzo will continue to propagate into the tropical N Atlc and Caribbean passages into Wed. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean. A broad area of low pressure is likely to form over the western Caribbean by midweek, then move NW toward the Gulf of Mexico. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Isolated moderate convection is over the S Bahamas from 20N-24N between 70W-78W. A 1009 mb remnant low of Karen is centered over the central Atlantic near 31N64W. A 1020 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 34N22W. Swell generated from Hurricane Lorenzo will propagate into portions of the SW N Atlantic through Wed. A surface trough N of Puerto Rico will drift westward over the SE Bahamas by Wed and then over the NW Bahamas by Thu night. The trough will support fresh to locally strong northeast to east breezes over the NW Bahamas and adjacent waters through Tue night. $$ Formosa