000 AXNT20 KNHC 301118 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Hurricane Lorenzo, at 30/0900 UTC, is near 28.7N 43.1W. Lorenzo is moving NNE, or 20 degrees, 11 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 90 knots with gusts to 110 knots. Precipitation: Scattered to numerous strong within 120 nm of the center in the N semicircle. scattered moderate to widely scattered strong elsewhere within 360 nm of the center in the N semicircle. Lorenzo is a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A hurricane watch and a tropical storm watch have been announced for different parts of the Azores. A watch typically is issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm-force winds. These are conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for LORENZO are available via the WMO header WTNT33 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for LORENZO are available via the WMO header WTNT23 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT3. Please go to the website, also, www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 18W/19W, from 18N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong within 180 nm to the E of the tropical wave from 10N to 17N, and within 100 nm to the W of the wave from 10N to 14N. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W/44W, from 13N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate within 120 nm to the E of the wave from 07N to 12N. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W/74W, from 19N in Haiti southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Upper level cyclonic wind flow is in the Caribbean Sea, from 70W eastward, with an inverted trough. Upper level NE wind flow is moving across the area of the tropical wave. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong within 180 nm on either side of the wave from 09N to 12N. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere around Hispaniola, and in the waters of the Windward Passage, and between Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti. Isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated strong from 25N southward to the the Greater Antilles and parts of the Bahamas, between 63W and 79W. An upper level trough is in the Atlantic Ocean, with its base reaching the NW half of Cuba. Other isolated moderate is in the Caribbean Sea from 12N northward from 64W westward. Some of this precipitation is near the cyclonic wind flow and the upper level inverted trough from 70W eastward, in the Caribbean Sea. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 07N17W 07N26W 09N33W 08N35W. The ITCZ is along 08N35W 07N38W 05N42W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 270 nm to the S of the monsoon trough/ITCZ between 30W and 39W. Isolated moderate within 360 nm to the N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ between 30W and the tropical wave, and elsewhere within 240 nm to the S of the monsoon trough between 18W and 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... Satellite imagery and GFS model data show middle level to upper level anticyclonic wind flow in the Gulf of Mexico. A NE-to-SW oriented surface ridge spans the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, from 22N southward between 90W and 95W adjacent to the western sections of the Yucatan Peninsula. A northern Gulf of Mexico coast surface ridge generally will maintain moderate to fresh winds in the basin through Thursday. Weak low pressure, developing in the western Caribbean Sea, will support fresh to locally strong NE to E winds in the SE Gulf of Mexico through mid week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W/74W, from 19N in Haiti southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Upper level cyclonic wind flow is in the Caribbean Sea, from 70W eastward, with an inverted trough. Upper level NE wind flow is moving across the area of the tropical wave. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong within 180 nm on either side of the wave from 09N to 12N. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere around Hispaniola, and in the waters of the Windward Passage, and between Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti. Isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated strong from 25N southward to the the Greater Antilles and parts of the Bahamas, between 63W and 79W. An upper level trough is in the Atlantic Ocean, with its base reaching the NW half of Cuba. Other isolated moderate is in the Caribbean Sea from 12N northward from 64W westward. Some of this precipitation is near the cyclonic wind flow and the upper level inverted trough from 70W eastward, in the Caribbean Sea. The upper level cyclonic circulation center, that was near 14N82W, 24 hours ago, now is part of an inverted trough that extends from the Gulf of Honduras southward. The monsoon trough is along 09N73W in Colombia, across southern Panama near 08N81W, beyond 08N85W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. along 80W, and along the eastern Pacific Ocean coast from Panama to Guatemala. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered strong, in clusters, within 240 nm on either side of the monsoon trough between 73W in Colombia and 84W. Swell, generated from Hurricane Lorenzo, will continue to propagate into the tropical N Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea passages through Tuesday. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail across the rest of the Caribbean Sea. It is possible that a broad area of low pressure may form in the western Caribbean Sea by the middle of the week, and then move NW toward the Gulf of Mexico.. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The remnants of KAREN are a 1010 mb low pressure center that is near 32N63W. A surface trough extends from the low pressure center to 27N63W and 21N68W. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving across the area of the low pressure center and the surface trough. Precipitation: Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong from 32N to 37N between 53W and 61W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 20N northward between 53W and 70W. An upper level trough is in the western sections of the Atlantic Ocean, with its base reaching the NW half of Cuba. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere around Hispaniola, and in the waters of the Windward Passage, and between Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti. Isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated strong from 25N southward to the the Greater Antilles and parts of the Bahamas, between 63W and 79W. An upper level trough is in the Atlantic Ocean, with its base reaching the NW half of Cuba. Swell, generated from Hurricane Lorenzo, will propagate into parts of the SW N Atlantic Ocean through Wednesday. A surface trough, to the N of Puerto Rico, will drift westward into the SE Bahamas by Wednesday, and then to the NW Bahamas by Friday night. The trough will support fresh to locally strong NE-to-E breezes in the NW Bahamas and the adjacent waters, through Tuesday night. $$ mt