000 AXNT20 KNHC 300541 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Hurricane Lorenzo, at 30/0300 UTC, is near 27.6N 43.5W. Lorenzo is moving NNE, or 20 degrees, 9 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 95 knots with gusts to 115 knots. Precipitation: Scattered to numerous strong within 250 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong elsewhere within 480 nm of the center in the NE semicircle. Lorenzo is a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A hurricane watch and a tropical storm watch have been announced for different parts of the Azores. A watch typically is issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm-force winds. These are conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for LORENZO are available via the WMO header WTNT33 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for LORENZO are available via the WMO header WTNT23 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT3. Please go to the website, also, www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 17W/18W, from 17N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: Scattered moderate to isolated strong within 300 nm to the E of the tropical wave from 10N to 14N, mostly in Africa. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W/42W, from 13N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong within 75 nm on either side of the wave from 08N to 13N. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W/73W, from 19N in Haiti southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Cyclonic wind flow is in the Caribbean Sea, from 70W eastward, with an inverted trough. Upper level NE wind flow is moving across the area of the tropical wave. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong from the Windward Passage to 24N between 70W and 80W, across the Greater Antilles and parts of the Bahamas. An upper level trough is in the Atlantic Ocean, with its base reaching the NW half of Cuba. A surface trough also is in the Atlantic Ocean, along 23N60W 22N66W 20N70W. Other isolated moderate from 12N northward from 64W westward. Some of this precipitation is near the cyclonic wind flow and the upper level inverted trough from 70W eastward, in the Caribbean Sea. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of Guinea and Sierra Leone, to 07N17W 08N35W 06N40W. The ITCZ is along 05N43W 03N47W 03N51W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong within 150 nm to the S of the monsoon trough between 30W and 37W. Isolated moderate elsewhere within 210 nm to the S of the monsoon trough between 16W and 30W; within 240 nm to the N of the monsoon trough between 28W and 40W, and between 45W and 51W. GULF OF MEXICO... Satellite imagery and GFS model data show middle level to upper level anticyclonic wind flow in the Gulf of Mexico. A NE-to-SW oriented surface ridge spans the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 16N to 21N between 90W and 93W from Guatemala to the western sections of the Yucatan Peninsula, including the adjacent waters of the SW Gulf of Mexico. A northern Gulf of Mexico coast surface ridge generally will maintain moderate to fresh winds in the basin through Thursday. It is possible that weak low pressure, developing in the western Caribbean Sea, may increase the east wind speeds in the southern and southeastern parts of the Gulf of Mexico mid-week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W/73W, from 19N in Haiti southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Cyclonic wind flow is in the Caribbean Sea, from 70W eastward, with an inverted trough. Upper level NE wind flow is moving across the area of the tropical wave. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong from the Windward Passage to 24N between 70W and 80W, across the Greater Antilles and parts of the Bahamas. An upper level trough is in the Atlantic Ocean, with its base reaching the NW half of Cuba. A surface trough also is in the Atlantic Ocean, along 23N60W 22N66W 20N70W. Other isolated moderate from 12N northward from 64W westward. Some of this precipitation is near the cyclonic wind flow and the upper level inverted trough from 70W eastward, in the Caribbean Sea. The upper level cyclonic circulation center, that was near 14N82W, 24 hours ago, now is an inverted trough that extends from the Gulf of Honduras southward. The monsoon trough is along 09N73W in Colombia, across southern Panama near 08N81W, beyond 08N85W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. along 80W, and along the eastern Pacific Ocean coast from Panama to Guatemala. Precipitation: scattered strong in clusters, from Panama to 12N between the Lake Maracaibo Venezuela area and western Panama coastal areas. Swell, generated from Hurricane Lorenzo, will continue to propagate into the tropical N Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea passages through early this week. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail across the rest of the Caribbean Sea. It is possible that a broad area of low pressure may form in the western Caribbean Sea by the middle of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The remnants of KAREN are a 1011 mb low pressure center that is near 32N62W. A surface trough extends from the low pressure center to 26N62W. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving across the area of the low pressure center and the surface trough. Precipitation: Scattered moderate to isolated strong from 33N to 35N between 57W and 61W. Isolated moderate within 30 nm on either side of 29N65W 31N61W 32N60W. An upper level trough is in the western sections of the Atlantic Ocean, with its base reaching the NW half of Cuba. A surface trough also is in the Atlantic Ocean, along 23N60W 22N66W 20N70W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong from the Windward Passage to 24N between 70W and 80W, across the Greater Antilles and parts of the Bahamas. Swell, generated from Hurricane Lorenzo, will propagate into parts of the SW N Atlantic Ocean through Wednesday. A surface trough, to the east of the area, will drift westward into the forecast waters early this week. This situation will lead to fresh NE-to-E breezes across the area. $$ mt