810 AXNT20 KNHC 292351 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 751 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Lorenzo is centered near 26.9N 44.2W at 29/2100 UTC or 1090 nm WSW of the Azores moving NNE at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 60 nm of the center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 24N-32N between 37W-47W. The latest ASCAT pass shows that Lorenzo's wind field is quite large. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Lorenzo. Watches for those islands could be issued later today or tonight. Lorenzo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected over the next couple of days, but Lorenzo is expected to remain a large hurricane throughout that time. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC, or www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over W Africa along 15W from 04N-18N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is mostly inland from 08N-17N between 10W-15W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W/41W from 02N-13N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm of the wave axis. A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W from 08N-19N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over Hispaniola, N Colombia, and NW Venezuela. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W to 08N31W. The ITCZ extends from 08N31W to 06N39W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 05N43W to the coast of N Brazil near 03N51W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection is from 05N-10N between 28W-35W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1022 mb high is centered over N Georgia near 34N84W. SE return flow is over the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is along the coast of S Texas and NE Mexico from 24N-27N between 95W-100W. Further S, scattered moderate convection is over the Yucatan Peninsula. In the upper levels, a large upper level high is centered over S Louisiana near 30N93W. Strong subsidence covers most of the Gulf. A high pressure ridge along the northern Gulf coast will generally maintain moderate to fresh winds over the basin through Thu. Weak low pressure developing over the western Caribbean may increase east winds over the southern and southeastern Gulf mid- week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is along 72W. See above. Elsewhere, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over E Cuba, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over Honduras and Nicaragua enhancing convection. Swell generated from Hurricane Lorenzo will continue to propagate into the tropical N Atlc and Caribbean passages through early this week. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean. A broad area of low pressure may form over the western Caribbean by midweek. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered moderate convection is over the S Bahamas from 20N-23N between 71W-78W. A surface trough is E of the Bahamas from 23N61W to 19N69W. Isolated moderate convection is within 60 nm of the trough. The 1011 mb remnant low of Karen is centered over the central Atlantic near 32N60W. A 1021 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 36N17W. Swell generated from Hurricane Lorenzo will propagate into portions of the SW N Atlantic through Wed. A surface trough E of the area will drift westward into the SW N Atlantic early this week. This will lead to fresh northeast to east breezes across the area. $$ Formosa