000 AXNT20 KNHC 291100 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Hurricane Lorenzo, at 29/0900 UTC, is near 25.1N 44.6W. Lorenzo is moving N, or 10 degrees, 9 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 925 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 135 knots with gusts to 165 knots. Precipitation: Numerous strong within 150 nm of the center in the E semicircle. Scattered moderate to isolated strong elsewhere within 450 nm of the center in the NE semicircle, and within 180 nm of the center in the SW semicircle. Lorenzo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC, or www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W/39W, from 12N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate within 180 nm to the east of the wave, and within 150 nm to the west of the wave. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W/69W, from 20N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate within 390 nm to the west of the wave, and within 180 nm to the east of the wave, from 18N southward. Scattered strong from 18N in Puerto Rico to 21N between 65W and 68W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea from 09N to 10N between 13W and 14W, to 08N17W 09N24W, and 08N28W. The ITCZ continues from 08N28W to 08N32W, 06N37W, and 04N43W. Precipitation: Isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong within 300 nm to the south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ, and within 240 nm to the north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ, elsewhere from the 38W/39W tropical wave eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... Satellite imagery and GFS model data show middle level to upper level anticyclonic wind flow in the Gulf of Mexico. A NE-to-SW oriented surface ridge spans the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong from Guatemala and Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula to 25N westward to 100W, including in the Gulf of Mexico from 25N southward from 90W westward. Precipitation that is related to T.S. NARDA, which is within 80 nm of the coast of Mexico in the eastern Pacific Ocean, just to the west of 100W, is in the eastern Pacific Ocean waters of Mexico between the Gulf of Tehuantepec and 106W. A surface ridge, along the northern Gulf coast, generally will maintain moderate to fresh winds in the basin through Thursday. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 14N82W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 77W westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 80W westward. A surface trough is in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from the NE coast of Nicaragua to the western coast of Panama. A second surface trough is along 86W/87W, from central Honduras to 19N. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 77W eastward. A small part of upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, is in the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 12N northward between 65W and 80W. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N from northern Colombia near 73W, to Panama along 80W, and along the eastern Pacific Ocean coast from Panama to Guatemala. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong from 07N to 10N between the border of Venezuela and Colombia and 81W. Swell, generated from Hurricane Lorenzo, will continue to propagate into the tropical N Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea passages through Tuesday. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail across the rest of the Caribbean Sea. It is possible that a broad area of low pressure may form in the western Caribbean Sea by Wednesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The remnants of KAREN are a 1012 mb low pressure center that is near 31N59W. A surface trough extends from the low pressure center to 25N58W and 20N59W. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving across the area of the low pressure center and the surface trough. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong within 240 nm to the south of the line 25N75W 22N59W. Swell, generated from Hurricane Lorenzo, will propagate into parts of the SW N Atlantic Ocean through Wednesday. A surface trough will form to the north of Puerto Rico by Monday, and then it will drift westward to the SE Bahamas by the middle of the week. $$ mt