000 AXNT20 KNHC 281720 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 120 PM EDT Sat Sep 28 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Hurricane Lorenzo, at 28/1500 UTC, is near 22.5N 44.8W. Lorenzo is moving to the N at 9 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb. The maximum sustained winds are 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Lorenzo is forecast to remain a strong hurricane when it turns northeastward towards the Azores. Numerous strong convection is within 90 nm N semicircle and 120 nm S semicircle. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is elsewhere within 240 nm NE quad and 180 nm remaining quads. The latest ASCAT pass shows that tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 240 nm NE quad and 190 nm SE quad, while 25 kt winds extend outward up to 390 nm NE quad and 330 nm SE quad. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC, or www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. Heavy rain event in Southern Mexico: Abundant moisture associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E and southwesterly monsoonal flow from the tropical Pacific Ocean will affect the Pacific Coast of Mexico. This will result in the potential for heavy rainfall from the Mexican state of Chiapas to Nayarit through Monday. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 7 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are expected. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. See the latest public advisory on Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP1/WTPZ31 or the website www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W, from 11N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is well-depicted by model diagnostics and TPW imagery. Isolated moderate convection is from 03N-11N between 31W-38W. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W, from 20N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over the Virgin Islands and surrounding waters. Isolated showers are within 90 nm of the wave axis from 10N-15N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W to 05N32W. The ITCZ extends from 05N37W to 09N54W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 04.5N-07N between 22W-27.5W and from 03N-09N between 08W-15W. GULF OF MEXICO... Mid to upper-level anticyclonic flow covers the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is in the SW Gulf of Mexico south of 21N and west of 93W. Elsewhere south of 24N and west of 92W, isolated moderate convection is seen. This convection in the SW Gulf is related to a weather system in the East Pacific across the other side of Mexico. The latest ASCAT pass has moderate to locally fresh SE winds across portions of the western Gulf of Mexico. High pressure ridging north of the area across the southern states will prevail across the region through Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave along 64W is responsible for enhanced rainfall today across the Virgin Islands. A surface trough over Cuba and an upper-level low over the southwest Caribbean are enhancing scattered moderate rainshowers from 14N-23N between 76W-84W. Another surface trough along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is enhancing scattered moderate convection from 17N-21N between 85W-89W. The East Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing scattered moderate convection in the SW Caribbean south of 14N and west of 76W. Scattered moderate convection is also seen over northern Costa Rica and SE Nicaragua. The latest ASCAT pass shows gentle winds across much of the Caribbean, with moderate trades in the south-central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean through the weekend. A broad area of low pressure may form over the western Caribbean early next week. Swells generated from Hurricane Lorenzo will continue to propagate into the tropical N Atlc and Caribbean passages this weekend into early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from the Central Bahamas to central Cuba to near the Cayman Islands. Scattered moderate rainshowers and isolated tstorms are seen across the Central Bahamas and portions of the SE Bahamas. The remnants of Karen are a 1012 mb low pressure center that is near 30N58W. A surface trough extends from the low pressure center, to 25N58W and 22N62W to 20N70W. Scattered moderate rainshowers and isolated tstorms are within 120 nm of the trough. Broken cirrus clouds along with scattered showers extend to the east of Hurricane Lorenzo from 20N-30N between 22W-37W. The remnants of TS Karen will drift westward as a trough through Wed. High pressure building N of the area will increase winds and seas across the northern waters into early next week. Large swells from Hurricane Lorenzo cover will cover the Atlantic today from 05N-32N between 35W-65W. These swells will increase tonight between 65W-70W and will reach 75W by Sunday. By Sunday afternoon, E swells of 6 to 9 ft are forecast to be affecting the waters from 20N-32N between 65W-70W. $$ Hagen