000 AXNT20 KNHC 281105 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Sat Sep 28 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Hurricane Lorenzo, at 28/0900 UTC, is near 21.4N 44.8W. Lorenzo is moving NNW, or 330 degrees, 9 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 100 knots with gusts to 120 knots. Precipitation: Numerous strong within 180 nm of the center in the N semicircle. Scattered moderate to isolated strong within 120 nm of the center in the S semicircle, and elsewhere within 270 nm of the center in the N semicircle. Isolated moderate is within 1150 nm of the center in the remainder of the area of the NE quadrant. Lorenzo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC, or www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...A heavy rain event in Central America and Southeastern Mexico... Southwesterly monsoonal flow is pushing abundant moisture from the tropical Pacific Ocean toward the areas of Guatemala, and the states of Mexico from Chiapas to Colima. Expect heavy rainfall through the weekend. It is possible that the heavy rains may lead to flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain and along the Pacific Ocean coast. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W/34W, from 11N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 10N southward between 30W and 41W. Some of this precipitation also is related to the monsoon trough and the ITCZ. A tropical wave is entering the eastern areas of the Caribbean Sea, along 62W/63W, from 20N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: Isolated moderate from 15N southward between 56W and 68W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W, to 07N23W and 04N33W. The ITCZ is along 04N35W to 07N46W, to 09N54W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong within 240 nm on either side of the monsoon trough between 18W and the 32W/34W tropical wave. Isolated moderate from 10N southward from 50W westward. GULF OF MEXICO... A heavy rainfall event has been forecast for Guatemala and the states of Mexico from Chiapas to Colima, during this weekend. Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION for more details. Precipitation: numerous strong in the SW Gulf of Mexico, from 20N southward between 93W and 95W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico from 26N southward from 92W westward, in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, and in the NW Caribbean Sea between 86W and Guatemala. Satellite imagery and GFS model data show middle level to upper level anticyclonic wind flow in the Gulf of Mexico. A NE-to-SW oriented surface ridge spans the Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge to the north of the area, across the southern U.S.A., will prevail in the Gulf of Mexico through Wednesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A heavy rainfall event has been forecast for Guatemala and the states of Mexico from Chiapas to Colima, during this weekend. Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION for more details. Precipitation: numerous strong in the SW Gulf of Mexico, from 20N southward between 93W and 95W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico from 26N southward from 92W westward, in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, and in the NW Caribbean Sea between 86W and Guatemala. A middle to upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 14N78W, about 240 nm to the S of Jamaica. Middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 20N southward between 70W and 84W. Precipitation: numerous strong within 100 nm of the coasts of Costa Rica and the east central coast of Nicaragua. Isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 74W westward. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean Sea through the weekend. It is possible that broad low pressure may form in the western Caribbean Sea early next week. Swells generated from Hurricane Lorenzo will continue to propagate into the tropical N Atlantic Ocean and the eastern Caribbean Sea passages, from this weekend into early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The remnants of Karen are a 1012 mb low pressure center that is near 30N58W. A surface trough extends from the low pressure center, to 25N59W and 22N64W. A second and separate surface trough is along 24N73W, across central Cuba, to 19N82W in the NW part of the Caribbean Sea. An upper level trough extends from a 31N73W cyclonic circulation center, toward NW Cuba. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 14N northward in the Caribbean Sea and in the Atlantic Ocean, from 56W westward. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC, or www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. The remnants of TS Karen will drift westward as a trough through Wednesday. High pressure building N of the area will increase the wind speeds and the sea heights across the northern waters into early next week. $$ mt