000 AXNT20 KNHC 280508 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Sat Sep 28 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0450 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Hurricane Lorenzo, at 28/0300 UTC, is near 20.8N 44.1W. Lorenzo is moving NNW, or 335 degrees, 8 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 105 knots with gusts to 130 knots. Precipitation: Numerous strong within a radius of 150 nm of the center. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 1100 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Lorenzo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days. Lorenzo is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the weekend. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC, or www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...A heavy rain event in Central America and Southeastern Mexico... Southwesterly monsoonal flow is pushing abundant moisture from the tropical Pacific Ocean toward Central America. Heavy rainfall is expected in Central America, through the weekend. The greatest threat for heavy rainfall will migrate northwestward to areas that include: western Nicaragua, southern Honduras, southern Guatemala, to southern Mexico, including in the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca and Guerrero. It is possible that the heavy rains may lead to flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain and areas near the Pacific Ocean coast. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W/33W, from 11N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 10N southward between 23W and 39W. Some of this precipitation also is related to the monsoon trough and the ITCZ. A tropical wave is entering the eastern areas of the Caribbean Sea, along 60W/61W, from 20N southward, moving W 10 knots. Precipitation: Isolated moderate from 15N southward between 55W and 64W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 09N13W, to 06N32W. The ITCZ continues from 06N34W to 06N47W, to the coast of French Guiana near 05N52W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 10N southward between 23W and 39W. Some of this precipitation also is related to the monsoon trough and the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Satellite imagery and GFS model data show middle level to upper level anticyclonic wind flow in the Gulf of Mexico. A NE-to-SW oriented surface ridge spans the Gulf of Mexico. A western Gulf of Mexico trough will continue to move slowly westward, then reach the northeastern coast of Mexico on Saturday. High pressure will prevail elsewhere across the region. CARIBBEAN SEA... A heavy rainfall event is expected in Central America and southeastern Mexico during this weekend. Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION for more details. Precipitation: numerous strong from 14N to 17N between 86W and 92W, from the coastal sections of Honduras and the Gulf of Honduras inland, across parts of Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and into southern Mexico. Scattered strong is in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, and in parts of the coastal waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean from 14N to the coast between 92W and 96W. Scattered moderate to strong in clusters is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico from 20N to 21N between the western part of the Yucatan Peninsula and 93W. A middle to upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 14N78W, about 240 nm to the S of Jamaica. Middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 20N southward between 70W and 84W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 74W westward, and from 16N to 18N between 64W and 67W. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean Sea through the weekend. It is possible that broad low pressure may form in the western Caribbean Sea early next week. Swells generated from Hurricane Lorenzo will continue to propagate into the tropical N Atlantic Ocean and the eastern Caribbean Sea passages, from this weekend into early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The remnants of Karen are a 1008 mb low pressure center that is near 30N58W. A surface trough extends from the low pressure center, to 25N59W and 22N64W. A second and separate surface trough is along 24N73W, across central Cuba, to 19N82W in the NW part of the Caribbean Sea. An upper level trough extends from a 31N73W cyclonic circulation center, toward NW Cuba. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 25N southward to the Greater Antilles and the NE Caribbean Sea islands between 58W and 80W. The remnants of Karen are moving toward the northeast. The remnants should stall, and then begin moving westward during the weekend. The winds that are associated with the remnants are expected to decrease gradually during the next several days. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC, or www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. A surface trough, the remnants of former Tropical Storm Karen, will drift westward into the forecast waters, from late this weekend into early next week. High pressure will build N of the area. The pressure gradient between these features will increase the wind speeds and the sea heights across the northern waters, from this weekend into early next week. $$ mt