000 AXNT20 KNHC 280001 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 801 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Lorenzo is centered near 20.3N 43.6W at 27/2100 UTC or 1370 nm SW of the Azores, moving NNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Numerous strong convection is from 18N- 21N between 41W-45W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 14N-24N between 37W-50W. A turn toward the north is expected on Saturday, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Sunday. Lorenzo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days. However, Lorenzo is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through the weekend. Please read the latest NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Karen degenerated into a surface trough at 27/2100 UTC and the last advisory has been emitted by the National Hurricane Center. The remnants of Karen are centered near 29.3N 58.5W or 370 nm east- southeast of Bermuda, moving northeast at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 26N- 31N between 56W-61W. The remnants of Karen are moving toward the northeast, but should stall and then begin moving westward over the weekend. Winds associated with the remnants are expected to gradually decrease during the next several days. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...A heavy rain event in Central America and Southeastern Mexico... Southwesterly monsoonal flow is pushing abundant moisture from the tropical Pacific Ocean toward Central America. Heavy rainfall is expected in Central America, through the weekend. The greatest threat for heavy rainfall will migrate northwestward to areas from western Nicaragua, southern Honduras, southern Guatemala, to southern Mexico, including in the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca and Guerrero. It is possible that the heavy rains may lead to flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain and areas near the Pacific coast. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlc from 0N to 12N with axis near 30W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and tstms are from 07N to 10N between 28W and 31W. A tropical wave is from 08N to 19N with axis near 59W, moving W at 10 kt. Isolated showers are from 13N to 19N between 57W and 61W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 12N17W to 07N21W to 06N27W. The ITCZ begins near 06N32W and continues to 08N38W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered showers are from 01N to 09N between 30W and 37W. GULF OF MEXICO... Multi-layered water vapor imagery show very dry air across the basin, except for the SW gulf where the CIRA layered precipitable water imagery show abundant shallow moisture being advected from the EPAC monsoon. This moisture along with middle level divergent flow support scattered showers and tstms S of 22N over the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds dominate the basin due to a weak pressure gradient across the region. A trough will form over the western Gulf and move slowly westward, reaching the northeast coast of Mexico on Sat. High pressure will prevail elsewhere across the region with moderate to fresh return flow. CARIBBEAN SEA... A heavy rainfall event is expected in Central America and southeastern Mexico this weekend. Please read the Special Features section above for more details. A middle level low over the Bahamas extends a trough across Cuba and the NW Caribbean. This is supporting a surface trough from the Great Bahama Bank through central Cuba to 19N80W, along with scattered heavy showers and tstms N of 18N between 75W and 82W. Similar shower activity is within 90 nm of the northern coast of Colombia and over central Hispaniola. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trades are across the basin due to a weak pressure gradient across the region. Trade winds will increase over much of the central and western Caribbean through early next week . Swells generated from Lorenzo will continue to propagate into the tropical N Atlc and eastern Caribbean passages this weekend into early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for details on the tropical waves, Hurricane Lorenzo and and the remnants of Karen. A middle level low over the Bahamas extends a trough across Cuba and the NW Caribbean. This is supporting a surface trough from the Great Bahama Bank through central Cuba, along with scattered heavy showers and tstms S of 25N between 73W and 79W. Divergent flow between the middle level low and a middle level high centered just N of Puerto Rico is supporting scattered showers and tstms from 19N to 26N between 57W and 69W. The remainder eastern Atlc N of 20N and east of Hurricane Lorenzo is under the influence of the Azores high. A surface trough, remnants of former Tropical Storm Karen, will drift westward into the forecast waters late this weekend into early next week. High pressure will build N of the area. The pressure gradient between these features will increase winds and seas across the northern waters this weekend into early next week. $$ Ramos