000 AXNT20 KNHC 271044 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 644 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Lorenzo is centered near 18.6N 42.1W at 27/0900 UTC or 1620 nm SW of the Azores moving NNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 180 nm in the S semicircle and 250 nm N semicircle. A turn toward the north is expected on Saturday, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Sunday. Lorenzo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in strength are possible today. Slow weakening is forecast to begin by the weekend. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Karen is centered near 28.3N 61.2W at 27/0900 UTC or 350 nm SSE of Bermuda moving NE at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 26N-29N between 58W-63W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted north of Puerto Rico from 20N64W to 30N58W. This general NE motion is forecast to continue this morning, but Karen is forecast to become nearly stationary by tonight or early Saturday. A westward motion is then anticipated by the end of the weekend. Karen is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by Saturday. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...A heavy rain event in Central America and Southeastern Mexico... Southwesterly monsoonal flow is pushing abundant moisture from the tropical Pacific Ocean toward Central America. Heavy rainfall is expected in Central America, through the weekend. The greatest threat for heavy rainfall will migrate northwestward to areas from western Nicaragua, southern Honduras, southern Guatemala, to southern Mexico, including in the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca and Guerrero. It is possible that the heavy rains may lead to flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain and areas near the Pacific coast. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An east Atlantic tropical wave is near 28W from 12N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the wave axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 56W from 19N southward, moving W at 10 kt. No significant deep convection is associated with the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea- Bissau near 11N16W to 05N24W. The ITCZ begins west of the tropical wave near 05N29W to 04N34W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered showers are along the vicinity of the boundaries. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1006 mb low is centered over the Yucatan Peninsula near 17N90W. A surface trough extends northwestward from the low to the NW Gulf of Mexico near 23N96W. This is resulting in scattered moderate isolated strong convection in the Bay of Campeche from 18N-21N 91W-95W. Scattered showers are also seen in the NW Gulf from 26N-28N between 94W-96W. A 1014 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf near 28N83W. 5-10 kt surface winds are noted throughout the Gulf. No significant deep convection is present over the Gulf this evening. A trough over the western Gulf will continue to move slowly westward, then reach the northeast coast of Mexico on Sat. High pressure will prevail elsewhere across the region. CARIBBEAN SEA... A heavy rainfall event is expected in Central America and southeastern Mexico. Please read the Special Features section above for more details. A surface trough extends from SE Cuba westward to 17N82W. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 100 nm north of the trough and 150 nm to the south of the trough affecting the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the Gulf of Honduras associated to the 1006 mb low pressure centered over the Yucatan Peninsula near 17N90W. Additional scattered moderate convection is present in the SW Caribbean Sea mainly due to the proximity of the Pacific monsoon trough in the area, from 08N-12N between 76W-82W. Light and gentle winds prevail between 69W-83W and moderate to fresh winds in the Eastern and NW Caribbean. Trade winds will return to the Caribbean today, and will continue through Wed, with winds increasing over much of the central and western Caribbean through early next week. Swells generated from Lorenzo will propagate into the tropical N Atlc and eastern Caribbean passages this weekend into early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for details on the tropical wave, Hurricane Lorenzo and T.S. Karen. A 1016 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 32N72W. To the South, scattered showers are present north of the Bahamas from 27N-31N between 74W-79W. A surface trough extends from the SE Bahamas near 22N73W to E Cuba. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted along the trough from the Windward Passage to the Bahamas, from 20N74W to 22N73W. east of Hurricane Lorenzo, High pressure near 35N26W remains in control and extends into the eastern Atlantic. Tropical Storm Karen will move to 28.8N 60.1W this afternoon, weaken to a tropical depression near 29.1N 59.6W Sat morning, become a remnant low and move to 29.3N 60.1W Sat afternoon, then dissipate by Mon. High pressure building N of the area will slowly increase winds and seas across the area this weekend into early next week. $$ Torres