000 AXNT20 KNHC 262349 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 749 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Lorenzo is centered near 16.5N 40.8W at 26/2100 UTC or 950 nm W of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm of the center. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Friday, followed by a turn toward the north on Saturday. Additional strengthening is possible tonight, and fluctuations in intensity are expected Friday and Saturday. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Karen is centered near 27.2N 62.9W at 26/2100 UTC or 320 nm SSE of Bermuda moving NNE at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm of the center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm of a line from 20N65W to 30N60W. The storm is expected to turn eastward and become nearly stationary by Friday night, and then begin moving westward over the weekend. Weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Karen is expected to become a remnant low by Saturday. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...A heavy rain event in Central America and Southeastern Mexico... Southwesterly monsoonal flow is pushing abundant moisture from the tropical Pacific Ocean toward Central America. Heavy rainfall is expected in Central America, through the weekend. The greatest threat for heavy rainfall will migrate northwestward to areas from western Nicaragua, southern Honduras, southern Guatemala, to southern Mexico, including in the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca and Guerrero. It is possible that the heavy rains may lead to flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain and areas near the Pacific coast. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An east Atlantic tropical wave is near 24W from 14N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-11N between 26W-29W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 54W from 20N southward, moving W at 10 kt. No significant deep convection is associated with the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 14N17W to 10N20W to 08N28W. The monsoon trough resumes west of Hurricane Lorenzo near 12N43W to 08N50W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the coast of W Africa from 04N-11N between 08W-18W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1008 mb low is centered over NE Yucatan Peninsula near 19N90W. A surface trough extends northwestward from the low to the NW Gulf of Mexico near 26N94W. A 1015 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf near 28N85W. 5-10 kt surface winds are noted throughout the Gulf. No significant deep convection is present over the Gulf this evening. A trough over the western Gulf will continue to move slowly westward before it reaches the northeast coast of Mexico Sat. Elsewhere, high pressure will prevail across the forecast waters. CARIBBEAN SEA... A heavy rainfall event is expected in Central America and southeastern Mexico. Please read the Special Features section above for more details. A surface trough extends from SE Cuba westward to 18N85W. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the trough as well as from 12N-15N between 77W-80W. Tradewinds will return to the Caribbean Friday through the remainder of the forecast period with winds increasing over much of the central and western Caribbean through early next week. Swells generated from Hurricane Lorenzo will propagate through the tropical N Atlc and eastern Caribbean passages through this weekend into early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for details on the tropical wave, Hurricane Lorenzo and T.S. Karen. A 1015 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 33N73W. A surface trough extends from the SE Bahamas near 23N72W to E Cuba. No significant deep convection is present in connection with this trough. Tropical Storm Karen near 27.2N 62.9W 1005 mb at 5 PM EDT moving NNE at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. Karen will move to 27.9N 61.8W Fri morning, 28.2N 60.6W Fri afternoon, weaken to a tropical depression near 28.1N 60.3W Sat morning, become a remnant low and move to 28.0N 61.0W Sat afternoon, and 27.9N 63.8W Sun afternoon. Karen will change little in intensity as it moves to 27.9N 66.3W Mon afternoon, and dissipate Tue. High pressure will N of the area will bring an increase in winds and seas by the end of the weekend into early next week. $$ Landsea