000 AXNT20 KNHC 261033 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 633 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Lorenzo is centered near 15.2N 39.3W at 26/1000 UTC or 995 nm W of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands, moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Numerous moderate strong convection extends 250 nm in the east semicircle and 280 nm in the west semicircle from the center of Lorenzo. Scattered moderate convection is seen in the outer bands extending out to 400 nm on the E semicircle and 350 nm west semicircle. Lorenzo is forecast to turn toward the northwest and begin moving at a slightly slower speed later today. A turn toward the north is then anticipated on Saturday. Lorenzo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is possible today. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Karen is centered near 25.5N 63.5W at 26/0900 UTC or 475 nm S of Bermuda moving NNE at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen from 23N-26N between 62W-66W. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen along a line from 20N67W to 22N63W to 25N61W. A northeastward to eastward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Friday. Karen, or its remnants, are then expected to slow down and make a clockwise loop over the southwestern Atlantic into the weekend. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. ...A heavy rain event in Central America and Southeastern Mexico... Southwesterly monsoonal flow is pushing abundant moisture from the tropical Pacific Ocean toward Central America. Heavy rainfall is expected in Central America, through the weekend. The greatest threat for heavy rainfall will migrate northwestward to areas from southern Guatemala to southern Mexico, including in the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca and Guerrero. It is possible that the heavy rains may lead to flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain and areas near the Pacific coast. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An east Atlantic tropical wave is along 21W from 13N southward, moving around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen along the wave axis from 04N-10N between 19W-25W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 50W, from 19N southward, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 12N16W to 10N29W, resumes west of Hurricane Lorenzo near 10N43W to 08N48W. Scattered showers are seen in the vicinity of the boundary. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from the west central Gulf into the Bay of Campeche from 20N90W to 26N93W with scattered moderate to strong convection from 21N-23N between 90W-92W. A trough in the Yucatan Peninsula is producing scattered moderate to strong convection inland and along the Yucatan Channel and the Gulf of Honduras. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1015 mb high centered over the eastern Gulf coast. A surface trough over the Central Gulf and Yucatan Peninsula will move slowly westward across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days before it reaches the northeast coast of Mexico Sat. Elsewhere, high pressure will prevail. CARIBBEAN SEA... A heavy rainfall event is expected in Central America and southeastern Mexico. Please read the Special Features section above for more details. An upper level trough extends from a 24N73W upper level cyclonic circulation center, into the waters that are between Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti. A surface trough is analyzed from the Windward Passage near 20N73W across Jamaica near 18N78W to NW Caribbean Sea near 19N85W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along and south of the trough from 16N-18N between 74W-85W. To the east, the southern periphery of T.S. Karen is enhancing convection across Puerto Rico and adjacent waters. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds across the whole basin. A fairly weak pressure pattern with light and variable winds and low seas will prevail across the western and central Caribbean through this afternoon, with more typical conditions and trades returning by the end of the week. A tropical wave will move across the tropical N Atlc on Fri, then through the eastern to central Caribbean this weekend, reaching the western Caribbean early next week. Swells from Hurricane Lorenzo which will remain E of the region will propagate through the tropical N Atlc and E Caribbean passages this weekend into early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for details on the tropical wave, Hurricane Lorenzo and T.S. Karen. An upper-level trough extends across the west Atlantic from a cyclonic circulation center that is near 23N49W. This trough is enhancing scattered showers mainly in the vicinity of the trough axis from 24N-31N between 37W-48W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. Tropical Storm Karen will become a remnant low as it moves to 27.0N 65.2W early Mon, and continue to near 26.8N 67.4W early Tue. Meanwhile, high pressure will build down from off the Carolinas to the Bahamas this weekend into early next week tightening the pressure gradient. Winds and seas will increase and build by the end of the weekend into early next week as a result. $$ NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER