000 AXNT20 KNHC 260600 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Lorenzo is centered near 14.7N 38.1W at 25/300 UTC or 915 nm W of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands, moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 150 nm of the center in the W semicircle, and 250 nm of the center in the E semicircle. Thunderstorms in the outer bands extend 390 nm NE and SW quadrant from the center. Lorenzo will continue to move towards the west- northwest today and then take a turn to the northwest on Thursday, followed by a turn to the north by Saturday. Lorenzo is forecast to become a major hurricane on Thursday, with some additional strengthening possible through Friday. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Karen is centered near 24.4N 63.6W at 26/0300 UTC or 445 nm NNE of San Juan Puerto Rico moving NNE at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 21N-24N between 62W-64W. A north-northeastward to northeastward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early Friday. Karen or its remnants are then expected to slow down and make a clockwise loop over the southwestern Atlantic into the weekend. Little change in strength is forecast during the next several days. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. ...A heavy rain event in Central America and Southeastern Mexico... Southwesterly monsoonal flow is pushing abundant moisture from the tropical Pacific Ocean toward Central America. Heavy rainfall is expected in Central America, through the weekend. The greatest threat for heavy rainfall will migrate northwestward to areas from southern Guatemala to southern Mexico, including in the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca and Guerrero. It is possible that the heavy rains may lead to flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain and areas near the Pacific coast. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 50W, from 04N-19N, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 16N16W to 14N30W, resumes west of Hurricane Lorenzo near 10N44W to 08N48W. Scattered showers are possible near the boundary. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from the central Gulf into the Bay of Campeche from 26N92W to 21N91W with scattered showers and tstorms. A trough in the Yucatan Peninsula is producing an area of scattered moderate to strong convection inland with some moving offshore south of 21N. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1013 mb high centered over southern Mississippi. A surface trough across the Yucatan Peninsula will move slowly westward across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days before it reaches the northeast coast of Mexico Sat. Elsewhere, high pressure will prevail. CARIBBEAN SEA... A heavy rainfall event is expected in Central America and southeastern Mexico. Please read the Special Features section above for more details. An upper level trough extends from a 24N73W upper level cyclonic circulation center, into the waters that are between Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti. A surface trough is analyzed from the Windward Passage near 19N74W across Jamaica to NW Caribbean Sea near 19N85W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along and south of the trough from 16N-19N between 74W-85W. To the east, the southern periphery of T.S. Karen is enhancing convection across Puerto Rico and adjacent waters. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds across the whole basin. A fairly weak pressure pattern with light and variable winds and low seas will prevail across the western and central Caribbean through Thu, with more typical conditions and trades returning by the end of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for details on the tropical wave, Hurricane Lorenzo and T.S. Karen. An upper-level trough extends across the west Atlantic from a cyclonic circulation center that is near 20N-24N along 49W. This trough is enhancing scattered showers mainly in the vicinity of the trough axis. To the east, scattered showers 25N-31N between 37W-45W due to upper level divergence enhancing this convection. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. Tropical Storm Karen will move to 26.0N 62.9W Thu morning, 27.5N 62.0W Thu evening, 28.0N 61.0W Fri morning, 28.3N 60.0W Fri evening, and weaken to a tropical depression near 27.5N 61.5W Sat evening. Karen will become a remnant low as it moves to 26.6N 64.5W late Sun, and continues to 26.5N 67.0W Mon. $$ NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER