000 AXNT20 KNHC 252345 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 745 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Lorenzo is centered near 14.5N 36.9W at 25/2100 UTC or 730 nm W of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands, moving WNW at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 300 nm of the center in the W semicircle. Lorenzo will continue moving west-northwest through Thursday. A turn toward the northwest is expected by Thursday night. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Lorenzo is forecast to become a major hurricane on Thursday. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Karen is centered near 22.9N 64.3W at 25/2100 UTC or 290 nm NNE of San Juan Puerto Rico moving NNE at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 20N-27N between 61W-68W. A north- northeastward to northeastward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early Friday. Karen is then expected to slow down and make a clockwise loop over the southwestern Atlantic into the weekend. Some strengthening is possible during the next few days. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry is centered near 32.2N 65.6W at 25/2100 UTC or 40 nm W of Bermuda moving ENE at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 600 nm of the center in the SE semicircle, from 25N to 35N. A turn toward the east and east-southeast is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near or over Bermuda in a few hours. Gradual weakening of Jerry is expected during the next few days. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...A heavy rain event in Central America and Southeastern Mexico... Southwesterly monsoonal flow is pushing abundant moisture from the tropical Pacific Ocean toward Central America. Heavy rainfall is expected in Central America, through the weekend. The greatest threat for heavy rainfall will migrate northwestward to areas from southern Guatemala to southern Mexico, including in the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca and Guerrero. It is possible that the heavy rains may lead to flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain and areas near the Pacific coast. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 50W, from 05N-20N, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate showers are noted along the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 07N11W, to 06N16W and to 05N25W. Precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 270 nm to the N of the monsoon trough, and within 240 nm to the south of the monsoon trough. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends across the Bay of Campeche from 23N91W to 20N89W with scattered showers. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1014 mb high centered over southern Mississippi. The surface trough across the Yucatan Peninsula will move slowly westward across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days before it reaches the northeast coast of Mexico Sat. Elsewhere, high pressure will prevail. CARIBBEAN SEA... A heavy rainfall event is expected in Central America and southeastern Mexico. Please read the Special Features section above for more details. An upper level trough extends from a 24N73W upper level cyclonic circulation center, into the waters that are between Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti. A surface trough is analyzed from 20N85W to 19N77W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along and south of the trough from 15N-20N between 74W-86W. To the east, the southern periphery of T.S. Karen is enhancing convection across Puerto Rico and adjacent waters. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds across the whole basin. A fairly weak pressure pattern with light and variable winds and low seas will prevail across the western and central Caribbean through Thu, with more typical conditions and trades returning by the end of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for details on the tropical wave, Hurricane Lorenzo, T.S. Karen and Post T.C. Jerry. An upper-level trough extends across the west Atlantic from a cyclonic circulation center that is near 24N73W. This trough is enhancing scattered showers mainly west of 70W. To the east, a surface trough extends from 29N47W to 22N47W with scattered showers. Upper level divergence is enhancing convection north of 37W-43W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. Tropical Storm Karen will move to 24.6N 63.9W Thu morning, 26.5N 63.0W Thu afternoon, 27.6N 61.8W Fri morning, 27.9N 60.8W Fri afternoon, and 27.5N 60.5W Sat afternoon. Karen will change little in intensity as it moves to 26.5N 63.5W Sun afternoon, and continues to the 26.0N 67.0W Mon. $$ ERA