000 AXNT20 KNHC 251027 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 627 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Karen is centered near 20.5N 65.2W at 25/0900 UTC, or about 155 nm NNE of San Juan Puerto Rico, moving NE at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 kt gusting to 50 kt, and minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Karen will continue to move toward the north this morning. A motion toward the north-northeast is forecast to occur by this afternoon and continue through Thu. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will move farther away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today through Thursday. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. The Tropical Storm Warnings for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra and the U.S. Virgin Islands has been discontinued. The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the British Virgin Islands. Numerous strong convection extends outward from the center 80 nm NW quad, and more scattered moderate to strong convection 160 nm SE quad, 80 nm NW quad. Scattered moderate showers and tstorms are seen 200 nm outward from the center. Please read the latest NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry is centered near 31.8N 67.9W at 25/0900 UTC, or about 185 nm W of Bermuda, moving NNE at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 kt gusting to 50 kt, and minimum central pressure is 997 mb. A continued northeasterly motion is expected through today, followed by a turn toward the east on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda later today. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days. No convection is present within 180 nm of Jerry's center. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Hurricane Lorenzo is centered near 13.6N 33.9W at 25/0900 UTC, or about 640 nm W of the southernmost part of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving WNW at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt, and minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Lorenzo is expected to continue to move towards the west-northwest through Thu. A turn toward the northwest is expected by Thursday night. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Lorenzo is forecast to become a major hurricane by Thursday. Numerous strong convection is within 90 nm of the center in the NW quadrant, and 100 nm SW quadrant, scattered strong convection is seen in the east semicircle. Numerous moderate convection extends 180 nm to the east of the center and 150 nm to the west. Scattered showers and tstorms extend 300 nm from the center across the storm. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Heavy rain event over Central America and Southeastern Mexico: The East Pacific monsoon trough extends from the SW Caribbean inland over the spine of Central America, across Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, and westward to the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Southwesterly monsoonal flow is carrying abundant moisture from the tropical Pacific Ocean toward Central America. As a result, heavy rainfall is expected over Central America today through the week and into the weekend. By late this week and into the weekend, the greatest threat for heavy rainfall will migrate northwestward to areas from southern Guatemala to southern Mexico, including the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca and Guerrero. The heavy rains could lead to flash flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain and areas near the Pacific coast. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends from 25N44W to 14N46W to 02N44W, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-28N between 41W-47W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 13N16W to 13N19W. The monsoon trough resumes west of Hurricane Lorenzo from 10N35W to 07N42W. The ITCZ extends from 07N47W to 06N57W. Aside from the convection associated with Lorenzo and the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is seen in the vicinity of the monsoon trough near Africa extending 200 nm N and S of the boundary. No significant convection is noted along the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the coasts of Texas, northeastern Mexico, and the western Gulf of Mexico west of 93W and north of 23N. Upper-level anticyclonic flow covers the Gulf east of 93W. At the surface, a 1015 mb high pressure is near the northern Gulf Coast. A surface trough extends over the Yucatan Peninsula and south-central Gulf of Mexico from 24N90W to 18N90W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the trough axis with isolated strong tstorms seen in the Yucatan Channel near 19N-22N between 86W-91W. A surface trough across the Yucatan Peninsula will move slowly westward across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days before it reaches the northeast coast of Mexico Sat. Elsewhere high pressure will prevail. CARIBBEAN SEA... An E-W surface trough across the northern Caribbean Sea extending from the western Atlantic across the Bahamas and the Windward Passage to the Caribbean Sea near 19N84W. Water vapor and TPW loops show a sharp moisture gradient along a line from 21N78W to 23N86W, with dry air north of this line and moist air south of the line. Scattered moderate convection is seen 200 nm to the south and 60 nm to the north of the trough axis. Otherwise, a fairly weak pressure pattern with light and variable winds and low seas will prevail across the western and central Caribbean through Thu, with more typical conditions and trades returning by the end of the week. A tropical wave will quickly move across the tropical N Atlc by the end of the week, through the eastern Caribbean Sat, and central Caribbean Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An elongated upper-level low is located to the southwest of Jerry. This has induced strong southwesterly shear over Jerry, causing the tropical storm to become devoid of any convection. Jerry as of 25/0900 UTC, is a Post-Tropical Cyclone. Bermuda continues to be under Tropical Storm Warning. Scattered showers are located to the east of Jerry, seen from 26N-31N between 57W-62W. Farther east, an upper-level low prevails just north of the area centered near 33N46W, with a tail of mid to upper-level moisture wrapping well to the southeast and south of the upper-low. The moisture extends into the northern end of the tropical wave from 25N-31N between 33W- 44W. A 1028 mb high pressure is in control across the far east Atlantic. Post-Tropical Cyclone will move to 32.3N 66.5W this afternoon, 33.0N 64.2W Thu morning, 33.9N 61.7W Thu afternoon, 34.6N 59.3W Fri morning, and 34.0N 55.5W Sat morning. Jerry will dissipate early Sun. Tropical Storm Karen will move to 22.3N 64.5W this afternoon, 24.5N 63.9W Thu morning, 26.4N 63.2W Thu afternoon, 27.3N 62.5W Fri morning, and 27.1N 61.9W Sat morning. Karen will change little in intensity as it moves to 26.3N 64.4W early Sun, and continue to 25.9N 67.8W early Mon. $$ NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER