000 AXNT20 KNHC 241759 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Karen, at 24/1800 UTC, is near 17.5N 66.0W. Tropical Storm Karen also is about 57 nm/105 km to the S of San Juan in Puerto Rico, and about 70 nm/130 km to the W of St. Croix. Karen is moving N, or 0 degrees, 7 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong within 150 nm of the center in the W semicircle, and within 180 nm of the center in the E semicircle. Isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 17N to 22N between 61W and 67W. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. The center of Tropical Storm Jerry, at 24/1500 UTC, is near 30.8N 69.3W. JERRY also is about 248 nm/460 km to the WSW of Bermuda. JERRY is moving N, or 350 degrees, 6 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 50 knots with gusts to 60 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 540 nm of the center in the SE semicircle, from 20N to 35N. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details. The center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo, at 24/1500 UTC, is near 12.4N 29.3W. Lorenzo is about 320 nm/595 km to the WSW of the southernmost part of the Cabo Verde Islands. Lorenzo is moving WNW, or 285 degrees, 14 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 55 knots with gusts to 65 knots. Precipitation: Scattered to numerous strong is within 180 nm of the center in the W semicircle. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong within 540 nm of the center in the E semicircle, and elsewhere within 420 nm of the center in the W semicircle. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W/42W, from 23N southward, moving W 10 knots. Precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 300 nm on either side of the tropical wave, elsewhere from 23N to 28N between 36W and 44W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is inland in Africa. The monsoon trough and ITCZ are being disrupted by Tropical Storm Lorenzo and the 40W/42W tropical wave in the Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong from 03N to 20N from 20W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers Louisiana, Texas, the Gulf of Mexico and Mexico, from south central Mexico near 18N to 32N between 89W and 105W. A surface trough is along 91W/92W from 25N to 29N. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent. A surface trough is in the Yucatan Peninsula, and it also extends for about 90 nm more into the Gulf of Mexico. Some slow development of the area of low pressure is possible. It is forecast to move W, slowly, 5 to 10 knots, across the SW Gulf of Mexico, during the next few days. It is forecast to reach the NE coast of Mexico late on Friday or on Saturday. This area of low pressure has a low chance of forming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 21N to 24N between 85W and 91W, and in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico from 20N southward between 92W and 96W. Fresh northeast to east winds, from the Straits of Florida to offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula, will diminish to mainly moderate speeds this afternoon in the Straits of Florida. A weaker pressure gradient, that is between east to west ridging across the northern part of the basin, and a Yucatan Peninsula surface trough, will weaken. It is possible that weak low pressure may form along the Yucatan Peninsula trough, while it moves slowly westward, across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days, before it reaches the northeast coast of Mexico late on Friday or on Saturday. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough is on the western side of the area of Tropical Storm Jerry, that is in the Atlantic Ocean near 30.8N 69.3W. The base of that trough reaches SE Cuba. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong between Haiti and Jamaica. Other isolated moderate rainshowers are from 16N northward from 72W westward into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The monsoon trough extends from southern coastal Panama, along the western coast of Costa Rica, the western coast of Nicaragua, to the coast of El Salvador, and beyond southern coastal Guatemala, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 12N southward from 75W westward. Tropical Storm Karen near 17.6N 65.7W 1007 mb at 11 AM EDT is moving N at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Karen will move over or near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this afternoon, and to near 19.1N 65.4W this evening. Karen will intensify gradually as it reaches 21.3N 64.9W Wed morning with maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts to 50 kt, 23.6N 64.1W Wed evening, 25.5N 63.4W Thu morning with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts to 60 kt, and and 26.9N 62.6W Thu evening with little change in intensity. A fairly weak pressure pattern with light and variable winds and low seas will prevail across the western and central Caribbean Sea through Thursday. More typical conditions and trade winds are forecast to return by the end of the week. A tropical wave is expected to reach the Tropical N Atlantic Ocean by the end of the week, moving through the eastern Caribbean Sea for the start of the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Tropical Storm Jerry near 30.8N 69.3W 991 mb at 11 AM EDT moving N at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Jerry will weaken slightly as it moves to just north of the area near 31.7N 68.5W this evening with maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts to 55 kt. Jerry will continue to weaken as it reaches 32.6N 66.7W early Wed with maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts to 50 kt and reach 33.5N 64.2W Wed evening, and weaken to a tropical depression near 34.2N 61.5W Thu morning, and become a remnant low and move to 35.0N 57.4W Fri morning. Tropical Storm Karen near 17.6N 65.7W 1007 mb at 11 AM EDT is moving N at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Karen will move over or near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this afternoon, and 19.1N 65.4W this evening. Karen will intensify gradually as it reaches 21.3N 64.9W Wed morning with maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts to 50 kt, 23.6N 64.1W Wed evening, near 25.5N 63.4W Thu morning with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts to 60 kt, near 26.9N 62.6W Thu evening with little change in intensity and maintain intensity as it reaches 27.8N 62.0W Fri morning. Karen will intensify slightly as it reaches 28.0N 62.5W early on Sat and near 27.5N 65.0W early on Sun. $$ mt