000 AXNT20 KNHC 240000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2340 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Karen is centered near 15.8N 65.7W at 24/0000 UTC, or about 125 nm SSW of St. Croix, moving NNW at 11 kt. Minimum central pressure is 1008 mb, and maximum sustained winds are near 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Karen will pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands Tuesday morning. Karen will move over the western Atlantic to the north of Puerto Rico Tue night and Wed. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Karen is expected to bring heavy rain and gusty winds to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 150 nm of the center in the southern semicircle. Scattered moderate convection is also well to the east, from 12N-17N between 58.5W-63W, including over portions of the Lesser Antilles. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Jerry is centered near 29.0N 68.4W at 24/0000 UTC, or about 270 nm SW of Bermuda, moving NNW at 5 kt. Minimum central pressure is 991 mb, and maximum sustained winds are near 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda by early Wed. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda, with tropical storm conditions expected by Wednesday. Thereafter, a motion to the east-northeast is expected. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days. Numerous moderate with scattered strong convection extends outward from the center to 150 nm NE quad, and 90 nm in the SE and NW quads. Elsewhere in the E semicircle, scattered moderate convection extends out to 300 nm from the center. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Lorenzo is centered near 11.3N 25.5W at 23/2100 UTC, or about 220 nm SSW of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands, moving W at 14 kt. Minimum central pressure is 1004 mb, and maximum sustained winds are near 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. A westward to west-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is anticipated for the next several days. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Lorenzo is expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 90 nm of the center NE quad, 210 nm SE quad, 240 nm SW quad and 180 nm NW quad. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere within 240 nm E semicircle, 420 nm SW quad and 210 nm NW quad. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W from 23N southward, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 08N-20N between 35W-40W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 15N17W to 15N20W. The monsoon trough resumes west of T.S. Lorenzo near 10N29W to 10N39W to 06N49W. The ITCZ extends from 06N49W to 06N57W. Scattered showers are from 06N-14N between 46W-54W. GULF OF MEXICO... Water vapor imagery shows a large upper-level low that covers the western Gulf of Mexico, with much drier air north of a line from Key West Florida to 27N88W to 30N94W. Surface high pressure over the southeast U.S. extends ridging over the NE Gulf of Mexico, where fair weather prevails. An E-W shear line extends through the Florida Straits westward to 23N86W. A surface trough is from 24N87W to 18N88.5W. Scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms are seen over the SE Gulf of Mexico south of 25N and east of 89W to western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. Over the SW Gulf, a surface trough is analyzed from 19N92W to 20N95W to 24N97W. Scattered showers and tstorms cover the western Gulf west of 93.5W and also just inland from Houston to Tampico, enhanced by the upper-low. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh NE to E winds over the SE Gulf of Mexico. Fresh NE to E winds and seas to near 8 ft will continue through the Straits of Florida to offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula through Tue morning. Conditions will gradually improve as the pressure gradient between high pressure to the N and lower pressure associated with a trough across the Straits weakens. New high pressure will develop along the northern Gulf tonight, then will slowly lift N by the end of the week. Otherwise, the surface trough from 24N87W to 18N88.5W will continue to produce showers and tstorms over the SE Gulf of Mexico. This trough could become a broad low soon, and it is forecast to move slowly westward across the SW Gulf of Mexico over the next several days. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone development of this trough or broad low through the week before it reaches the northeast coast of Mexico late Friday or Saturday. CARIBBEAN SEA... See section above for info on Tropical Depression Karen, currently located over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Scattered afternoon tstorms over the Greater Antilles and Jamaica will be slow to wane as the evening progresses due to enhanced moisture over the area. Farther south, scattered moderate convection is over NW Venezuela, N Colombia, and the waters south of 12.5N between 69W-77W. Similar convection is seen over Panama and Costa Rica, due to the East Pacific monsoon trough. The latest ASCAT pass shows light to gentle winds across the western two- thirds of the basin, west of 69W. Tropical Depression Karen is forecast to remain a 30 kt tropical depression until after it exits the basin to the north of Puerto Rico by late Tuesday. Other than Karen over the eastern Caribbean, a fairly weak pressure pattern with light and variable winds and low seas will prevail across the western and central Caribbean through Thu, with more typical conditions and trades returning by the end of the week. A tropical wave will reach the Tropical N Atlantic waters by the end of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See section above for more info on Tropical Storm Jerry, Tropical Depression Karen, Tropical Storm Lorenzo and the tropical wave over the basin. A shear line extends from 24N74W to 23N86W. Scattered showers are seen in the Florida Straits and just east of the Central Bahamas. Water vapor imagery shows dry air north and west of a line from Key West Florida to 24N77W to 30N70W, where partly cloudy skies prevail. Farther E, a stationary front extends from 32N38W to 30N49W, continuing as a dissipating stationary front to 28N57W. An upper-level trough axis extends from 25N50W to beyond 32N47W. Scattered moderate convection is from 25N-32N between 42W-47.5W. Surface high pressure ridging prevails over the NE Atlantic east of 35N and north of 23N. Tropical Storm Jerry is forecast to move from near 30N69W tonight to near Bermuda Wed morning, and then move to the NE and farther away from the forecast area. Tropical Depression Karen will move into the Atlantic north of Puerto Rico Tuesday afternoon, then continue N to near 27N65W Thursday afternoon, possibly strengthening to a tropical storm before slowing down its forward speed. Tropical Storm Lorenzo is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane Tuesday night near 13N33W, then move WNW to near 21N46W by Saturday as a hurricane. $$ Hagen