000 AXNT20 KNHC 230554 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 154 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Karen is centered near 13.3N 63.6W at 23/0600 UTC or 315 nm SSE of St. Croix moving NW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. T.S. Karen has maximum sustained winds of 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection extends 140 nm SW quadrant from 10N-12N between 62W-65W. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea through tonight. On Tuesday, Karen is expected to pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Little change in strength is expected during the next couple of days. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Jerry is centered near 27.5N 67.2W at 23/0600 UTC or 365 nm SSW of Bermuda moving NNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection prevails 200 nm in the NE and SE quadrant, from 23N- 29N between 61W-67W. Scattered showers extend out 400 nm on the NE quadrant and 250 nm SE quadrant. A turn to the north is expected Monday night followed by a turn to the northeast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda by Tuesday night. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details. A tropical wave along 19W extends from 18N to a 1008 mb low near 10N20W to 03N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Satellite images indicate the shower and thunderstorm activity continues to become better organized in association with the low. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is from 09N-14N between 20W-23W. Continued development of this system is forecast, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form tonight or on Monday while the disturbance moves generally westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Regardless of development, this system is likely to bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the southern Cabo Verde Islands on Monday. This system has a high chance for tropical formation during the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 35W from 21N southward is moving W at 10-15 kt. Model diagnostics depict this wave well. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 17N16W to a 1008 mb low near 10N20W to 09N30W to 07N44W. The ITCZ extends from 07N44W to 07N54W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the sections above, scattered moderate convection is from 05N-09N between 24W-34W and 07N-10N between 42W-47W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the northern Gulf of Mexico, anchored by a 1022 mb high centered in the western Atlantic. This feature is keeping east to southeast surface flow across much of the Gulf of Mexico. A weakening stationary front over the western Atlantic passes through the Bahamas near 24N78W to the Florida Straits near 23N80W to the eastern Gulf near 23N85W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along the boundary. Scattered showers are present from 22N-26N and west of 91W. Latest ASCAT data depicts fresh to strong NE to E winds over the eastern Gulf of Mexico north of the front mainly east of 81W from 23N-29N. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds prevail elsewhere across the basin. The pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and lower pressure associated with a diminishing stationary front to the south will weaken as the high spreads southward and the front dissipates for the start of the week. Thus, winds and seas will gradually lessen into Monday. Overall high pressure will dominate through much of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for information on Tropical Storm Karen in the SE Caribbean. An E-W stationary front is over the Florida Straits enhancing convection near NW Cuba. Scattered showers and tstorms are also seen over Hispaniola, the Mona Passage and eastern Cuba. In the SW Caribbean south of 10N and west of 79W, scattered showers are present due to the proximity of the East Pacific monsoon trough. Latest scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds across most of the basin, except the eastern Caribbean near T.S. Karen. Tropical Storm Karen will move north of Puerto Rico by Wednesday morning, then continue moving north into late week, slowing in forward speed with time. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for details on the tropical waves and Tropical Storm Jerry. A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N45W to 27N58W. A weakening stationary front is analyzed west of T.S. Jerry and extends from 26N71W across the Bahamas to 24N78W into the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is seen 100 nm of the cold front and scattered showers are seen in the vicinity of the weakening stationary front. Further East, a stationary front pass through the Canary Islands near 31N10W to 28N19W to 28N25W. No significant convection is noted with the front. Jerry will move north of the region by Wednesday and pass near Bermuda on Thursday. Little chance in strength is forecast through Fri with a continued north and northeast motion anticipated. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Karen will move north of Puerto Rico and the area by Wednesday morning, then continue moving north into the SW Atlantic late week, slowing in forward speed with time. $$ NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER