000 AXNT20 KNHC 212338 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 738 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Jerry is centered near 23.0N 65.8W at 21/2100 UTC or 560 nm S of Bermuda moving NW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 19N-24N between 61W-67W. Jerry will continue moving NW away from Puerto Rico tonight and Sunday, then gradually accelerate northeastward by early next week. Little change in strength is forecast during the next several days. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details. An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 58W and S of 16N is moving W at 15-20 kt. Model guidance and satellite imagery depict this wave well. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-15N between 48W-60W. The latest ASCAT pass shows that the wave contains strong to near-gale force winds on both sides of the wave axis from 11N-16N. The wave is forecast to cross the Windward Islands on Sunday. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for some development, and a tropical depression could form later this weekend or early next week. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over much of the Lesser Antilles this weekend along with gusty winds, and interests on those islands and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this disturbance. This system has a medium chance for tropical development during the next 48 hours. A tropical wave over west Africa with axis along 14W and S of 19N is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N-14N between 08W-16W. The tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by Sunday morning. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form early next week while the wave moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. This system has a medium chance for tropical development during the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 31W and S of 19N is moving W at 15-20 kt. Model guidance and satellite imagery depict this wave well. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N- 13N between 29W-40W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 07N37W. The ITCZ extends from 07N37W to 10N54W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the sections above, no other significant convection is noted at this time. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered over the Carolinas. This feature is keeping an east to southeast flow across much of the basin. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong E winds over the eastern Gulf north of 24N and east of 90W, while gentle to moderate winds prevail farther south and west. An upper-level trough axis extends from just offshore North Carolina to Daytona Beach Florida to the east- central Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level diffluence to the southeast of this trough axis is enhancing scattered showers and tstorms over the SE Gulf waters from 23N-25N between 80W-86W. High pressure will dominate the Gulf waters through the weekend. The pressure gradient will tighten over the eastern Gulf through Sun, resulting in fresh to strong easterly winds and building seas. New high pressure will develop over the northern Gulf by early next week with the pressure gradient slackening and wind and sea conditions improving through the middle of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1011 mb surface low is centered just east of the eastern tip of Jamaica near 17N76W. A surface trough extends from the low to eastern Cuba near 22N78W. Scattered showers and tstorms are over E Cuba, Jamaica, and nearby waters. In the far SW Caribbean, the East Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing scattered moderate convection south of 12N between 70W-75W. Latest scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds across much of the basin. Large northerly swell will continue to pass through the NE Caribbean passages through Sunday. A strong tropical wave along 58W will cross the Windward Islands on Sunday, bringing squally weather. See the Special Features section above for details. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for details on the tropical waves and Tropical Storm Jerry. A frontal system extends across the west Atlantic, analyzed as a cold front from 31N55W to 29N60W, then becoming stationary from that point to 24N75W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm SE of the front. Similar activity is also affecting the far west Atlantic reaching the southern Florida, northern Bahamas, and adjacent waters. Due to the pressure gradient across the western Atlantic, strong NE winds around 20-25 kt cover the entire area north of the front from 25N-30N between 61W and the east coast of Florida, as shown by the latest ASCAT pass. To the east, a 1022 mb high is centered near 32N39W. A cold front enters the east Atlantic near 31N19W to 27N33W. Tropical Storm Jerry will move to 24.3N 66.9W Sun morning, 25.8N 67.6W Sun afternoon, and 27.0N 67.8W Mon morning. Jerry will change little in intensity as it curves to the north Monday afternoon, then approach Bermuda Tuesday and move farther north of the area Wednesday. Meanwhile, large remnant northerly swell will continue to impact the Atlantic forecast waters N of the Bahamas through Sunday. $$ ERA