000 AXNT20 KNHC 211030 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 630 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Jerry is centered near 21.4N 64.0W at 21/0900 UTC or 660 nm S of Bermuda moving NW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 90 nm of the center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 18N-24N between 60W-66W. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will continue to pass well north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, pass well east of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday, and turn northward over the western Atlantic on Monday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details. An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 52W S of 15N is moving W at around 15 kt. Model guidance and satellite imagery depict this wave well. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 05N-15N between 44W-57W. Environmental conditions are currently conducive for some development, and a tropical depression could form on Sunday or early next week while the system moves quickly westward to west-northwestward, crossing the Windward Islands on Sunday. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development by the middle of next week once the wave moves out of the northeastern Caribbean Sea. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over much of the Lesser Antilles over the weekend, and interests on those islands and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this disturbance. The system has a medium chance for tropical formation through the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 26W and S of 19N is moving W at 10-15 kt. Model guidance and satellite imagery depict this wave well. Isolated moderate convection is within 180 nm of the wave axis. An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 52W. Refer to the section above for details. A western Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 82W and S of 20N is moving W at 15 kt. A 1008 mb low is centered E of the wave axis near 18N76W. Scattered moderate convection is over SW Haiti and Jamaica from 16N-19N between 73W-77W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 08N26W to 07N37W. The ITCZ extends from 07N37W to 09N50W, then continues W of a tropical wave near 10N54W to the coast of Guyana near 08N59W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, clusters of scattered moderate convection are along the coast of W Africa from 05N-19N between 10W-19W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N-10N between 29W-36W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered over North Carolina near 35N77W. This feature is keeping an east to southeast flow across much of the basin. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh NE winds near the eastern Gulf and gentle to moderate E/SE winds on the central and west Gulf. Isolated moderate convection is over the Straits of Florida. High pressure centered over the Carolinas will dominate the Gulf waters through Sun. The pressure gradient will tighten over the eastern Gulf through Sun morning, resulting in fresh to strong easterly winds and building seas. New high pressure will develop over the northern Gulf by early next week with the pressure gradient slackening, and wind and sea conditions improving through the middle of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave and surface low moving across the basin. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over NW Venezuela and N Colombia mostly due to the proximity of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough. Isolated moderate convection is also inland over Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh winds across the central Caribbean, while light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. The tropical wave along 52W continues to produce only disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Due to strong upper-level winds, significant development of this system is not expected while it moves slowly west-northwestward during the next couple of days. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely over portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba through the weekend, potentially causing flash flooding and mudslides in areas of high terrain. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for details on the tropical waves and Hurricane Jerry. A cold front extends across the central and western Atlantic from 31N60W to 22N68W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the front. A 1025 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 32N43W. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong winds across the western Atlantic, from N of 26N and W of 74W. Tropical Storm Jerry near 21.4N 64.0W 995 mb at 5 AM EDT moving NW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Jerry will move to 22.7N 65.4W this afternoon, 24.3N 66.7W Sun morning, 26.0N 67.2W Sun afternoon, 27.3N 67.4W Mon morning, and 29.8N 66.9W Tue morning. Jerry will strengthen to a hurricane once it is N of the area near 33.2N 63.7W early Wed, and change little in intensity as it moves to 36.7N 60.0W early Thu. Meanwhile, large remnant northerly swell will continue to impact the Atlantic forecast waters N and E of the Bahamas through the weekend. $$ Formosa