000 AXNT20 KNHC 202355 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 755 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Jerry is centered near 19.6N 62.0W at 20/2100 UTC or 120 nm N of Barbuda moving WNW at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 90 nm of the center in quadrants. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern Leeward Islands later today, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday, be well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday and turn northward on Monday. Some weakening is forecast overnight, but Jerry could re-strengthen by early next week. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details. An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 48W S of 15N with a surface low centered near 09N48W, is moving W at around 15 kt. Model guidance and satellite imagery depict this wave well. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-14N between 45W-52W. Environmental conditions are currently conducive for some development, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while the system moves westward crossing the Windward Islands Saturday night and Sunday. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development early next week once the wave moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over the Windward Islands over the weekend, and interests on those islands should monitor the progress of this system. The system has a medium chance for tropical formation through the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 23W and S of 17N is moving W at 10-15 kt. Model guidance and satellite imagery depict this wave well. Scattered showers are noted along the wave's axis. An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 48W. Refer to the section above for details. A western Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 77W and S of 18N is moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the northern portion of the wave affecting Jamaica and adjacent waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through 18N16W to 13N21W to 10N31W. The ITCZ begins near 10N31W to 10N45W, then continues W of a tropical wave near 07N52W to 06N57W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is noted south of the monsoon trough mainly east of 17W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered over the Carolinas. This feature is keeping an east to southeast flow across much of the basin. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh NE winds near the eastern Gulf and gentle to moderate E/SE winds on the central and west Gulf. The pressure gradient will tighten over the eastern Gulf through Sun morning, resulting in fresh to strong easterly winds and building seas to 9 or 10 ft. New high pressure will develop over the northern Gulf by early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. An upper level trough extends into the NW Caribbean through N Honduras. A surface trough is reflected at the surface, and is analyzed from 21N80W to a 1009 mb surface low near 15N82W. To the east, another surface low is centered near 17N73W. Scattered moderate convection is related to this low, affecting Hispaniola and adjacent waters. Scattered moderate convection also prevails across Central America, due to the proximity of the monsoon trough. This activity could reach the Caribbean waters south of 10N between 78W-82W. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh winds across the central Caribbean, while light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. The broad area of low pressure just south of Hispaniola has a slight chance to develop into a tropical cyclone over the next few days. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall may produce flash flooding over portions of Hispaniola, Cuba, and Jamaica this weekend. The next tropical wave that will approach the Windward Islands this weekend has a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. Refer to the section above for details. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for details on the tropical waves and Hurricane Jerry. A stationary front extends across the central and western Atlantic, entering the forecast discussion area near 31N61W to 24N72W, then transitions to a weakening stationary front from 24N72W to 23N80W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the front. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 31N42W. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong winds across the western Atlantic, from N of 26N and W of 74W. Hurricane Jerry will move to 20.5N 63.9W Sat morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 21.8N 65.9W Sat afternoon, 23.2N 67.5W Sun morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 24.5N 68.6W Sun afternoon, and 27.0N 68.9W Mon afternoon. Jerry will change little in intensity as it moves to near 30.0N 67.5W Tue afternoon, and near Bermuda Wed. Large swell generated by an extratropical cyclone located off the coast of Newfoundland will reach the Atlantic forecast waters N and E of the Bahamas through the weekend. $$ ERA