000 AXNT20 KNHC 192349 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 749 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Humberto is centered near 38.5N 58.7W at 19/2100 UTC or 480 nm NE of Bermuda moving NE at 21 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 125 nm to 250 nm of the center in the N semicircle. The hurricane is expected to slowly weaken and become a post-tropical cyclone tonight. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Hurricane Jerry is centered near 17.5N 55.8W at 19/2100 UTC or 340 nm E of the Leeward Islands moving WNW at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday and be well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 44W, from 15N southward, is moving W 10-15 kt. Model guidance depicts this wave very well. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-12N between 40W-47W. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 74W, from 20N southward, is moving W at 5-10 kt. A 1009 mb low pressure center is along the wave axis near 13N74W. Another low pressure center is located in the wave's environment near 16N72W. These features are enhancing convection south of 20N between 67W-77W. A tropical wave is over Central America with axis along 84W from 17N southward, moving W 5-10 kt. Scattered showers are noted across the northern portion of the wave affecting Nicaragua and Honduras. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 16N16W to 07N28W to 11N46W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical wave along 44W, scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough mainly east of 20W. GULF OF MEXICO... Tropical Depression Imelda is centered over east Texas, enhancing convection across the northwest Gulf waters mainly north of 26N and west of 90W. To the east, a cold front extends from 24N80W to 30N87W. No significant convection is related to this front at this time. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh winds north of the front, while gentle to moderate winds prevail across the remainder of the basin. Expect for the front to dissipate through the night. High pressure centered over the Carolinas will dominate the Gulf waters through the weekend. The pressure gradient will tighten over the eastern Gulf tonight through Sat night supporting fresh to strong easterly winds and building seas to 8 ft. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 18N68W, about 45 nm to the SE of the SE part of the Dominican Republic. Numerous strong rainshowers are within 180 nm of the center in the W semicircle. An upper level trough passes through the Atlantic Ocean near 27N76W, across the western half of Cuba, into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, toward the Gulf of Honduras. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 15N to 18N between 80W and Belize. The monsoon trough passes through 09N/10N, from N sections of Colombia beyond the southern sections of Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are in the central sections of Panama. Hurricane Jerry will approach the northeast Caribbean this weekend, moving to 18.4N 57.9W Fri morning, 19.5N 60.8W Fri afternoon, 20.7N 63.6W Sat morning, 21.9N 65.8W Sat afternoon, and 24.9N 68.7W Sun afternoon. The elongated area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is west of Haiti will continue producing showers and thunderstorms across the central and west Caribbean. Upper-level winds are not conducive for significant development of this system while it moves slowly west- northwestward at about 5 kt. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Greater Antilles during the next few days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for details on the tropical wave, Hurricane Jerry and Hurricane Humberto. A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 30N61W to 25N72W to 24N80W. A surface trough is analyzed near the front extending from 23N72W to 21N76W. Scattered showers are noted along the front and trough. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 29N36W. Hurricane Humberto is expected to become a powerful extratropical cyclone well east of Nova Scotia. Large swell generated by Humberto will continue propagating south and impacting Atlantic waters N and E of the Bahamas through the weekend. Meanwhile, Jerry will move to 18.4N 57.9W Fri morning, 19.5N 60.8W Fri afternoon, 20.7N 63.6W Sat morning, 21.9N 65.8W Sat afternoon, and 24.9N 68.7W Sun afternoon. Jerry will change little in intensity as it turns northward well east of the Bahamas Sunday. $$ ERA