000 AXNT20 KNHC 191805 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Hurricane Humberto, at 19/1500 UTC, is near 36.8N 60.0W. This position also is about 360 nm/665 km to the NE of Bermuda. Humberto is moving NE, or 050 degrees, 21 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 95 knots with gusts to 115 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 125 nm to 250 nm of the center in the N semicircle. Please, read the latest NHC public advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details. The center of Hurricane Jerry, at 19/1500 UTC, is near 16.8N 54.4W. This position also is about 425 nm/785 km to the east of the Leeward Islands. Jerry is moving WNW, or 295 degrees, 14 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 65 knots with gusts to 80 knots. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are within 120 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 15N to 22N between 48W and 60W. Please, read the latest NHC public advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details. The center of Tropical Depression Imelda, at 19/1500 UTC, is near 30.5N 95.5W, or about 50 nm/90 km to the N of Houston in Texas, and also about 45 nm/85 km to the E of College Station in Texas. Imelda is moving NW, or 320 degrees, 5 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 25 knots with gusts to 35 knots. Numerous strong rainshowers are within 180 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. Flooding is occurring in SE Texas. Please, read the latest Weather Prediction Center public advisory under WMO headers WTNT31 KWNH or www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W/43W, from 15N southward, moving W 15 knots. A surface trough is along 13N40W 09N38W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 06N to 15N between 38W and 50W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W/74W, from 20N southward, moving W 10 knots. A 1008 mb low pressure center is along the wave near 13N. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 360 nm to the west of the tropical wave, from 09N to 14N. Isolated moderate rainshowers also are from 17N to 20N between Haiti and 81W. A tropical wave is along 83W/84W, from 17N southward, moving W 5 to 10 knots. The wave passes through eastern sections of Honduras, eastern Nicaragua, and Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 15N to 18N between 80W and Belize. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W, to 08N21W 08N26W, 05N36W, and 11N46W. Numerous strong rainshowers are from 14N to 16N between 16W and 18W along the coast of Africa. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 10N to 17N from 20W eastward to Africa. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere within 240 nm on either side of the monsoon trough, from 38W eastward, and from 08N to 10N between 50W and 60W. GULF OF MEXICO... Tropical Depression Imelda is inland in Texas, near the Houston metropolitan area. Numerous strong rainshowers are within 180 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. A surface trough is analyzed in the eastern Gulf from 26N84W to the western Florida Panhandle near 30N87W. Scattered thunderstorms are along this trough from 25N-30N between 85W-87W. Otherwise, ridging dominates the rest of the basin with a 1014 mb high analyzed near 28N88W. The latest scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds across most of the basin with moderate northeasterly winds in the SE Gulf and moderate southerly winds in the NW Gulf. High pressure over the north central Gulf will dissipate today as a weak cold front moves across the eastern Gulf, then stall over the southeast Gulf by late Friday, before dissipating Saturday into Sunday. High pressure will persist in the wake of the front from the Carolinas to Texas into early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 18N68W, about 45 nm to the SE of the SE part of the Dominican Republic. Numerous strong rainshowers are within 180 nm of the center in the W semicircle. The monsoon trough passes through 09N/10N, from N sections of Colombia beyond the southern sections of Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are in the central sections of Panama. Scattered thunderstorms are noted near the SE Cuban coast moving into adjacent waters in addition to the Gulf of Honduras. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen in the SW basin, S of 13N between 73W-79W. Scattered showers continue over and south of Puerto Rico with the rest of the eastern Caribbean remaining dry. Radar and satellite indicates that a 1008 mb low is located in the Mona Passage near 18N68W. Latest scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds across the basin. A few showers and thunderstorms will persist over the eastern Caribbean over the next couple of days, east of weak low pressure over the central Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for more details about Tropical Storm Jerry. A cold front is currently sweeping across the western and central Atlantic in the wake of Hurricane Humberto. The cold front extends from 32N64W to 26N74W to South Florida near 26N80W. Showers are seen along the front, mainly in the central Atlantic. A trough is analyzed near the central Atlantic from 19N58W to 26N57W. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are near this feature, from 23N-29N between 54W-57W. Another cold front enters the discussion area in the eastern Atlantic near 31N20W and stretches westward to 28N33W. The front stalls near 28N33W and extends southwestward to 29N45W to 24N54W. Light showers are along the boundary. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh NE winds in the western Atlantic. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail in the wake of the trough associated with Humberto, and ahead of any potential impacts from Jerry. $$ AKR