000 AXNT20 KNHC 180000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Humberto is centered near 31.2N 71.6W at 18/0000 UTC or 350 nm WSW of Bermuda moving ENE at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 75 nm in the NE semicircle and 90 nm in the SW semicircle. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere within 300 nm in the NE quadrant, 120 nm in the S semicircle, and 180 nm in the NW quadrant. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and Humberto could become a major hurricane late tonight or on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Humberto is expected to pass just to the NW and N of Bermuda Wednesday night. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC for more details. Tropical Depression Ten is centered near 13.4N 45.6W at 17/2100 UTC or 960 nm E of the Leeward Islands moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 150 nm in the W quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm in the E semicircle, and elsewhere within 240 nm in the W semicircle. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. The system is forecast become a hurricane by the time it moves near the northern Leeward Islands. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details. The now Tropical Depression Imelda is centered near 29.6N 95.4W at 18/0000 UTC, or 4 nm N of Houston Texas, moving N at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is within 150 nm in the NE and SW quadrants, within 210 nm in the SE quadrant, and within 120 nm in the NW quadrant. Imelda is forecast to produce heavy rainfall over the upper coastal region of Texas, including the Houston and Galveston areas, and SE Texas and SW Louisiana through Thursday. This rainfall may produce significant to life-threatening flash floods. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 33W S of 18N, is moving W at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 13N- 16N between 33W-36W. An east-central Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 70W S of 19N, is nearly stationary. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 14N-19N between 68W-72W. A west Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 78W S of 17N, is moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean south of 12N between between 76W-82W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 13N27W to 13N42W, then resumes west of T.D. Ten near 11N47W to 08N50W. The ITCZ begins near 08N50W to the coast of Guyana near 08N59W. Aside from the convection already discussed in the Tropical Waves section above, scattered showers are noted along the boundaries between 35W-52W. GULF OF MEXICO... T.D Imelda is along the Texas coast. Refer to the section above for details. Scattered showers are developing over the Yucatan Peninsula and moving west reaching the Bay of Campeche. Surface ridging prevails over the eastern Gulf of Mexico with fair weather. Imelda will continue moving northward through eastern Texas Thu and weaken into a remnant low, then dissipate Fri. High pressure will build over the north central Gulf in the wake of Imelda tonight, supporting gentle to moderate winds through mid week, except for moderate to fresh winds off the west coast of Yucatan at night. The high pressure will dissipate later in the week in advance of a weak cold front that is forecast to move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico then stall and dissipate over the southeast Gulf Fri into Sat. Fresh winds and building seas will follow the front over the eastern Gulf Fri into Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the two tropical waves currently over the Caribbean. Latest scatterometer data depicts light to gentle trades prevailing across most of the basin except east of 70W, where moderate to fresh winds are depicted. Moderate to fresh trade winds will expand across the basin and prevail through the forecast period. T.D.Ten will strengthen to a hurricane near 18.9N 60.3W by Fri afternoon. Ten will change little in intensity as it approaches the northeast Caribbean near 20.9N 66.0W by Sat afternoon, and continue to 23.5N 70.5W by Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for details on Hurricane Humberto, T.D.Ten, and the tropical wave moving across the basin. A 1020 mb surface high is over the central Atlantic near 29N48W. To the east, a stationary front enters the discussion area near 31N29W to 26N40W to 25N54W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. A surface trough is analyzed south of the front from 23N45W to 19N49W. Hurricane Humberto will move to 31.5N 70.5W Wed morning and 32.6N 67.6W Wed afternoon. Humberto will move north of Bermuda Wed night and father into the central north Atlantic waters through the remainder of the week, then weaken as an extratropical cyclone over the weekend. T.D. Ten will strengthen to a tropical storm near 14.1N 46.9W Wed morning, move to 15.0N 48.9W Wed afternoon, 15.9N 51.4W Thu morning, 16.9N 54.1W Thu afternoon, and strengthen to a hurricane near 18.9N 60.3W Fri afternoon. Ten will change little in intensity as it moves to near 20.9N 66.0W Sat afternoon, and continue to near 23.5N 70.5W Sun. The front will dissipate through the next 24 hours. $$ Lewitsky/ERA