000 AXNT20 KNHC 171810 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 206 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Humberto is centered near 30.7N 73.5W at 17/1500 UTC or 460 nm W of Bermuda moving ENE at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 90 nm of the center. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 31N-34N between 68W-76W. On the forecast track, the center of Humberto is expected to pass just to the north of Bermuda Wednesday night. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and Humberto could become a major hurricane late tonight or Wednesday morning. Please read the latest NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC, or at the website hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Depression Ten is centered near 12.9N 44.9W at 17/1500 UTC or 1010 nm ESE of the Leeward Islands moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 90 nm of the center. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 10N-15N between 43W-48W. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Imelda is centered near 28.9N 95.3W at 17/1745 UTC over Freeport Texas moving N at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection along the Texas coast from 25N-31N between 92W-97W. The storm is expected to produce total rainfall accumulation of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum of 15 inches across the upper coastal region of Texas into far southwest Louisiana through Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods.See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 32W/33W S of 18N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 13N-17N between 32W-36W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 70W S of 19N, moving W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is mostly E of the wave axis from 10N-20N between 60W-70W. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W S of 17N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean from 08N-12N between 76W-80W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 13N20W to 14NN33W to 13N45W to 08N50W. The ITCZ begins near 08N50W to the coast of Guyana near 07N59W. Aside from the convection already discussed in the Tropical Waves section, isolated moderate convection is from 03N-06N between 24W-34W. Similar convection is from 06N-10N between 47W-56W. GULF OF MEXICO... T.S Imelda is along the Texas coast. See above. Isolated moderate convection is over the Bay of Campeche from 18N-22N between 92W- 96W. A 1018 mb high is centered over Mississippi near 33N89W producing surface ridging over the E Gulf of Mexico. Mostly fair weather is over the E Gulf. In the upper levels, strong subsidence is over the E Gulf. High pressure will build over the north central Gulf tonight, supporting gentle to moderate winds through mid week, except for moderate to fresh winds off the west coast of Yucatan at night. The high pressure will dissipate later in the week in advance of a weak cold front that is forecast to move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico then stall and dissipate over the southeast Gulf Fri into Sat. Fresh winds and building seas will follow the front over the eastern Gulf Fri into Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the two tropical waves currently over the Caribbean. Latest scatterometer data depicts light to gentle trades across the basin, with moderate to fresh winds are noted in the Gulf of Honduras and the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh trade winds will dominate much of the basin. Long period northerly swell will push through the Atlantic Ocean passages today. T.D.Ten will strengthen to a hurricane near 18.2N 59.2W Fri morning. Ten will change little in intensity as it moves over the Caribbean to 20.2N 64.7W early Sat, and continue to 22.5N 69.0W Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for details on Hurricane Humberto, T.D.Ten, and the tropical wave moving across the basin. A 1020 mb surface high is over the central Atlantic near 30N48W. To the east, a cold front enters the discussion area near 31N30W to 26N40W to 24N50W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. Hurricane Humberto near 30.7N 73.5W 961 mb at 11 AM EDT moving ENE at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt. Humberto will move to 31.1N 72.0W this evening, 31.8N 69.4W Wed morning, 33.1N 66.1W Wed evening. Humberto will move north of Bermuda Wed night and farther into the central north Atlantic waters through Sat, before weakening to an extratropical cyclone Sun. Northerly swell will follow across the open waters in the wake of Humberto. Tropical Depression Ten near 12.9N 44.9W 1007 mb at 11 AM EDT moving WNW at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Ten will strengthen to a tropical storm near 13.8N 46.1W this evening, move to 14.7N 47.9W Wed morning, 15.5N 50.2W Wed evening, 16.3N 52.9W Thu morning, and strengthen to a hurricane near 18.2N 59.2W Fri morning. $$ Formosa