000 AXNT20 KNHC 132345 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 745 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Nine is centered near 25.6N 75.0W at 13/2100 UTC or 210 nm ESE of Freeport Grand Bahama Island moving NW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 23N-28N between 69W-76W. On the forecast track, the system is anticipated to move very near the northwestern Bahamas tonight and Saturday, and east of the east coast of Florida during Saturday and Sunday. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Saturday. Please, read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC, or go to the website hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 31N from 06N-20N, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave is well depicted in satellite imagery and TPW imagery. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N-13N between 28W-35W. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form early next week while it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 42W from 06N-20N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the wave axis. This wave is well depicted in model guidance, and a satellite imagery shows turning. Conditions are expected to become more conducive for development in a couple days, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves westward across the tropical Atlantic and approaches the eastern Caribbean Sea. An Atlantic tropical wave is along 55W, from 08N-21N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 14N-18N between 51W-61W. TPW imagery and 700 mb streamline analysis depicts the wave well. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 83W from 07N-19N, moving west at 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean from 07N-14N between 78W-85W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon extends from Senegal near 14N17W to 10N24W to 10N31W to 07N45W. The ITCZ continues from 07N45W to the coast of Guyana near 06N58W. Aside from the convection already discussed in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate convection is along the coast of W Africa from 10N-15N between 13W-18W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is over the SW Gulf of Mexico from 23N97W to 18N93W. Isolated moderate convection is within 180 nm of the trough. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds across the western half of the basin, while gentle to moderate winds prevail east of 90W. An upper-level low is over the central Gulf near 26N89W producing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection east of 92W to include SW Florida, W Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula. High pressure over the southeastern United States will support moderate to fresh northeast to east winds into the weekend. Tropical Depression Nine currently over the central Bahamas will track northwestward off the east coast of Florida through early next week. The gradient between the cyclone and the high pressure will allow for fresh winds over the NE Gulf through Sat. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across the eastern Gulf through Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the western Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is over Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola. Isolated moderate convection is over the Leeward Islands. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over NW Venezuela and N Colombia. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the basin, except locally fresh winds south of 14N between 68W-72W. High pressure north of the area will maintain moderate trades that will at times pulse to fresh to strong in the south central Caribbean. A tropical wave, with axis near 83W will move inland across Central America tonight through Sat night. Another tropical wave, with axis along 55W will move across the tropical N Atlantic through late tonight, and across the eastern Caribbean on Sat. A third and stronger tropical wave will approach the tropical N Atlantic and eastern Caribbean over the weekend into early next week. It is expected to bring widespread showers and thunderstorms, gusty winds and building seas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for details on T.D. Nine, and the three tropical waves moving across the basin. Surface ridging is over the eastern Atlantic N of 22N and E of 45W, with fair weather. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is over the central Atlantic near 29N58W. Scattered moderate convection is E of the center N of 28N between 46W-52W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is SW of the center from 22N-26N between 58W-65W. Tropical Depression Nine is near 25.6N 75.0W 1009 mb at 5 PM EDT moving NW at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 25 kt gusts 35 kt. The tropical depression will move to near 26.2N 76.0W Sat morning, strengthen to a tropical storm near 27.4N 77.6W Sat afternoon with maximum sustained winds of 35 kt gusts 45 kt. The tropical storm will reach near 28.8N 78.5W late Sat night, to near 30.0N 78.8W Sun afternoon, to near 31.0N 78.0W late Sun night and strengthen to a hurricane near 31.5N 76.5W Mon afternoon. Maximum sustained winds will then be 65 kt gusts 80 kt and will increase slightly in strength as it reaches just north of the area near 32.ON 73.0W on Tue and to near 32.5N 68.0W Wed. A tropical wave may approach the waters south of 22N early next week. $$ Formosa