000 AXNT20 KNHC 131111 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 711 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, at 13/0900 UTC, is near 24.6N 75.2W. This position also is about 221 nm/410 km to the ESE of Freeport in Grand Bahama Island, and about 148 nm/275 km to the SE of Great Abaco Island, in the Bahamas. The feature is moving NW, or 310 degrees, 5 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 25 knots with gusts to 35 knots. Scattered strong rainshowers are within 240 nm of the center in the E quadrant. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are elsewhere within 300 nm to 500 nm of the center in the E quadrant. The system is anticipated to move across the central and northwestern Bahamas today, and along or over the east coast of Florida on Saturday and Saturday night. The disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression, or a tropical storm, during the next day or so. The chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours is high. Please, read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC, or go to the website hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W/36W, from 20N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong rainshowers are between this tropical wave, and the tropical wave that is along 44W/45W. The atmospheric conditions are expected to become more conducive for development in a couple days. It is possible that a tropical depression may form early next week, while the system moves quickly westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W/45W, from 20N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong rainshowers are between this tropical wave, and the tropical wave that is along 35W/36W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere within 240 nm to the west of this tropical wave, from 06N to 14N. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W/58W, from 20N southward, moving W 10 knots. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 400 nm to the east of the wave from 14N to 17N, and within 210 nm to the west of the wave, from 13N to 16N. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W/81W, from 19N southward, moving W 15 knots. Numerous strong rainshowers are within 120 nm to the east of the wave, and within 75 nm to the west of the wave, from Panama to 11N. The precipitation also is near the monsoon trough, in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through SW Senegal near 13N17W to 10N27W, to 08N39W, and to 08N48W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 240 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 24W and 37W, and within 90 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 26W and 29W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 04N to the monsoon trough from 24W eastward, and elsewhere within 210 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 37W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the east central Gulf of Mexico. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers at least the northern half of the Gulf of Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 24N northward from 90W eastward. Widely scattered moderate rainshowers are elsewhere E of 90W. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in interior southern Mexico. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, from 24N southward from 94W westward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 25N southward from 90W westward. High pressure over the southeastern United States will support moderate to fresh northeast to east winds into the weekend. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine currently over the central Bahamas will track northwestward off the east coast of Florida through early next week. The gradient between the cyclone and the high pressure will allow for fresh winds over the NE Gulf Fri night into Sat along with building seas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may spread westward from the Florida peninsula to the eastern Gulf through Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the area that is to the NW and W of the line that runs from 80W in Cuba to eastern Honduras. Part of the precipitation that is in the NW corner is related to the east central Gulf of Mexico upper level cyclonic circulation center. Another part of the precipitation is related to the cyclonic wind flow that is moving around Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. The monsoon trough is along 07N/08N between 74W in northern Colombia, westward, beyond southern Panama, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Numerous strong rainshowers are from Panama to 11N between 78W and 82W. High pressure north of the area will maintain moderate trades, that will at times pulse to fresh to strong in the south central Caribbean. A tropical wave will cross from the central Caribbean into the western Caribbean today, then exit into Central America Sun. Another tropical wave will enter the tropical N Atlantic and eastern Caribbean tonight. A third and stronger tropical wave will approach the tropical N Atlantic and eastern Caribbean over the weekend into early next week, expected to bring widespread showers and thunderstorms, gusty winds and building seas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 21N northward between 50W and 64W. A surface trough is along 32N50W 28N52W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 27N to 36N between 46W and 52W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 20N to 30N between 53W and 63W. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is over the central Bahamas near 24.6N 75.2W 1009 mb at 5 AM EDT, moving NW at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Nine will move to 25.1N 76.2W this afternoon, impacting Grand Bahama possibly as a tropical storm near 26.0N 77.8W Sat morning, before move northward to 27.0N 79.3W Sat afternoon, 28.2N 80.4W Sun morning, and 30.3N 81.1W Mon morning. Nine will change little in intensity as it moves north of the area off the coast of Georgia early Tue, then move eastward into the open Atlantic through Wed. Elsewhere, a tropical wave may approach the waters south of 22N early next week. $$ MT