000 AXNT20 KNHC 112332 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 732 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A surface trough extends from 27N70W to the SE Bahamas near 22N74W to Jamaica near 18N77W. Scattered to isolated strong convection is from 21N-25N between 68W-75W. Widely scattered moderate convection is elsewhere within 120 nm of the trough axis. Upper level diffluence is also over the W Atlantic N of 23N between 65W-75W. Conditions are forecast to become more favorable for development late this week, and a tropical depression could form near the northwestern Bahamas or South Florida as early as Friday. Further development is possible over the eastern Gulf of Mexico later this weekend. The disturbance will likely produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the Bahamas through Friday, and across Florida during the weekend. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W, passing through the Cabo Verde Islands from 20N southward. The tropical wave is moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N-15N between 24W-29W. Widely scattered moderate convection is also from 04N-08N between 21W-28W. This wave is forecast to move quickly westward during the next several days. Environmental conditions may become more favorable for development as the system approaches the Lesser Antilles from late this weekend into early next week. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W from 19N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 05N- 15N between 32W-41W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W from 19N southward, moving W at 10 kt. A 1010 mb low pressure center is embedded on the wave axis near 14N. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis. The system is forecast to move westward where upper-level winds will become even less favorable for tropical cyclone formation. A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W from 16N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, N Colombia, and NW Venezuela. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 86W from 17N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Senegal near 14N17W to 10N27W to 11N43W to 13N52W to 13N56W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the coast of W Africa from 09N-14N between 13W-19W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche from 22N97W to 18N93W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the wave axis. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is inland over the Yucatan Peninsula. The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico has 10-15 kt easterly winds. Of note in the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered over the W Gulf near 23N98W. Upper level diffluence is over the NW Gulf with scattered moderate convection from 24N-28N between 90W-97W. High pressure centered N of the basin will support moderate to fresh NE to E winds into the weekend. Weak low pressure in the vicinity of the Bay of Campeche will remain nearly stationary. A trough of low pressure, possibly as a tropical cyclone, will move W from Florida into the eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend into early next week, accompanied by widespread showers, thunderstorms, gusty winds and building seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean. See above. The tail end of a surface trough extends from the SE Bahamas near 22N74W to Jamaica near 18N77W. Widely scattered moderate convection is over E Cuba and Jamaica. Similar convection is within 60 nm S of the coast of W Cuba. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is over Costa Rica and Panama due to the eastern extent of the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough. High pressure centered N of the region will maintain moderate trades, that will at times pulse to fresh to strong in the S central Caribbean. A tropical wave will cross from the central Caribbean to the western Caribbean Fri. A strong tropical wave will approach the tropical N Atlantic and eastern Caribbean over the weekend into early next week. This feature will also bring widespread showers and thunderstorms, gusty winds and building seas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... For information on the surface trough currently over the Bahamas, see the Special Features section above. Another surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 28N49W to 20N56W. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the trough axis. In the far E Atlantic, northerly strong to near gale force winds are expected off the coast of Morocco through Thu. Further more, in the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered near 21N56W enhancing convection. $$ Formosa