000 AXNT20 KNHC 110544 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 144 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 24W/25W, moving across the Cabo Verde Islands, from 20N southward, moving W 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 15N to 18N between 19W and 21W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 10N to 20N from 25W eastward. This wave is forecast to move westward quickly during the next several days. Some slow development is possible during the weekend, when the system is a few hundred miles to the east of the Windward Islands. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 48W/49W, from 20N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. A 1010 mb low pressure center is along the wave near 14N. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 12N to 16N between 46W and 56W, and from 18N to 19N between 53W and 54W. Some slight development of this system still is possible tonight and Wednesday. Upper level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation by Thursday. This disturbance is expected to move slowly westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean for the next several days. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W/68W, from 18N southward, moving W 15 knots. No significant deep convective precipitation is in the Caribbean Sea. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 86W/87W, from 20N southward, moving W 10 knots. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong rainshowers are from 18N northward from 80W westward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Senegal near 14N17W to 10N23W, 10N27W 13N42W, to the 1010 mb low pressure center that is along the 48W/49W tropical wave, to 10N54W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 300 nm on either side of the line that runs from 07N12W to 05N21W, to 09N33W, to 12N38W, and to 16N46W. GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Texas, Mexico, and the Gulf of Mexico, from 20N northward into East Texas between 94W and 102W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the Gulf of Mexico from 86W westward. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the coastal waters of Georgia. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 25N76W, near Eleuthera Island in the Bahamas. Isolated moderate rainshowers are within 90 nm of the Florida west coast. area upper level cyclonic circulation center that is near 25N76W, A surface ridge N of the basin will support mainly moderate to fresh NE to E wind flow through Friday. A surface trough will move from the Florida Peninsula and the Straits of Florida, into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. The trough will be accompanied by scattered to numerous rainshowers and thunderstorms. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough passes through the Atlantic Ocean near 21N62W, across Puerto Rico, to a point that is about 200 nm to the south of Jamaica, to the border of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Rainshowers are possible between 60W and 70W. The monsoon trough is along 08N75W in Colombia, across Panama and beyond southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 12N southward from 80W westward. High pressure N-NE of the region will maintain moderate trade winds, except pulsing to fresh to strong in the S central Caribbean Sea. An eastern Caribbean Sea 66W tropical wave will move into the central Caribbean Sea by early Thursday, then into the western Caribbean Sea by the end of the week into the weekend. A stronger tropical wave will approach the tropical N Atlantic Ocean and the far eastern Caribbean Sea by the end of the upcoming weekend, with gusty winds and squalls. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough extends from a 35N66W cyclonic circulation center, to 30N74W, to a Bahamas-area upper level cyclonic circulation center that is near 25N76W, and eventually toward Jamaica. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the coastal waters of Georgia. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers have moved from Hispaniola into the northern coastal waters, during the last few hours. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are elsewhere within 250 nm on either side of the line that runs from Bermuda to 25N70W to SE Cuba and Jamaica. A surface trough is along 24N69W...22N72W...NW Haiti. Ship reports indicate that tropical- storm-force wind gusts are occurring in some of the heavier squalls. Limited development of this disturbance is expected during the next few days, due to only marginally conducive upper level winds. The system is forecast to move slowly west- northwestward. It is possible that the environmental conditions may become more favorable for development, when the system moves through the Florida Straits and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico late this week and during the weekend. This disturbance will produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the Bahamas through Thursday, and across Florida on Friday and continuing into the weekend. An upper level trough extends from a 30N30W cyclonic circulation center, to a 25N53W cyclonic circulation center, to 21N62W, toward Puerto Rico. Isolated moderate rainshowers are within 700 nm to the NW of the line that passes through 19N62W 24N44W 28N30W beyond 32N24W. A surface trough, from near the Windward Passage to the SE Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos, will move WNW, slowly across the basin, through the end of the week, reaching the Florida Peninsula on Friday. The trough will be accompanied by scattered to numerous rainshowers and thunderstorms. Relatively weak high pressure will move northward, gradually, in advance of the trough. $$ MT