000 AXNT20 KNHC 091748 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 148 PM EDT Mon Sep 9 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle, at 09/1500 UTC, is near 39.0N 47.3W, moving NE at 15 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection are from 38N-41N between 46W-49W. Please read the latest NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC, or the website hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W, from 19N southward, moving W 10 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted along the coast of Guinea, Guinea Bissau and Senegal, from 10N to 15N between 16W-20W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W, from 19N southward, moving W 20 knots. Area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Windward Islands is associated to this wave and the proximity of the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is mainly to the west of the wave, from 11N-15N between 42W-46W. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next two or three days before upper-level winds become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. This system is expected to move generally westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean for the next several days. This area of disorganized showers has a 20 percent chance of formation through the next 48 hours. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W, from 13N southward, moving W 10 knots. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the wave axis. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 79W, from 18N southward, moving W 10 knots. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the wave axis. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W, from 20N southward, moving W 10 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the wave, especially in the coast of Costa Rica, Nicaragua and Honduras. A few showers are also noted north of 19N between the Cayman Island and the Yucatan Peninsula. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near 13N16W, to 13N42W to 10N54W. Aside from the convection associated to the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is present around 300 nm south of the monsoon trough from 06N-12N between 30W-39W. Another area of scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N- 11N between 47W- 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper and mid level cyclonic circulation center is along the coast of South Texas. Cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of MX, from 21N-29N between 90W-97W. At the surface a trough extends from the Bay of Campeche to Central Gulf of Mexico, 19N94W to 24N90W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 19N94W to 25N92W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen near the coast of Louisiana and west Gulf coast of S Florida. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds span the Gulf of Mexico. A trough moving off the western Yucatan peninsula will allow fresh to strong winds in that area overnight. Elsewhere weak ridging extending from off the Carolina coast through the lower Mississippi Valley will maintain gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight seas through Tue. Winds will increase slightly over the southeast Gulf by mid week ahead of a trough moving through the Bahamas and South Florida through late week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. Scattered moderate convection is seen over the Greater Antilles from the Mona Passage to the Dominican Republic and Cuba. Some of this activity is moving into adjacent waters. Scattered tstorms are also seen across NW Caribbean Sea near the two tropical waves in the region. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades in the south-central Caribbean with light to gentle trades elsewhere. High pressure north of the area will maintain moderate trades, except pulsing to fresh to strong speeds in the south- central Caribbean and near the coast of Colombia beginning this evening. A pair of tropical waves over the western Caribbean will move west of the region by mid week. Another tropical wave approaching Barbados will move across the eastern Caribbean through mid week and the central Caribbean Thu and into the southwest Caribbean Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. An upper level trough passes through 31N52W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 23N57W, to an upper level cyclonic circulation center that is in the Caribbean Sea about 60 nm centered over Puerto Rico. A surface trough is along 23N66W to 19N65W. This trough is interacting with the upper level low producing an area of disorganized showers and tstorms west of 66W from 20N-24N. Little to no development of this system is expected during the next day or two while the system moves west-northwestward, north of the Greater Antilles. Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for development when the disturbance moves near the Bahamas and Florida late this week. A surface to low-level trough north of Puerto Rico will track WNW across the area during the week reaching the Florida late in the week. It will be accompanied by scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, relatively weak high pressure across the area will gradually lift northward through the week. $$ MMTorres