000 AXNT20 KNHC 090547 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 147 AM EDT Mon Sep 9 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0510 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian, at 09/0300 UTC, is near 52.1N 53.4W, or about 325 nm/600 km to the N of Cape Race in Newfoundland. Dorian is moving ENE, or 60 degrees, 21 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds is 50 knots with gusts to 60 knots. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC, or the website hurricanes.gov, for more details. The center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle, at 09/0300 UTC, is near 36.5N 49.3W. Gabrielle is moving N, or 360 degrees, 13 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 55 knots with gusts to 65 knots. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong rainshowers are within 60 nm on either side of the line that runs from 36N50W 34N52W to 31N54W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 30N to 33N between 54W and 62W. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC, or the website hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W/20W, from 20N southward, moving W 10 knots. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 04N to 06N between 11W and 15W, and from 09N to 12N between land and 22W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 20N southward between Africa and 22W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W/41W, from 20N southward, moving W 20 knots. A 1011 mb low pressure center is along the wave near 14N. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next few days. The low pressure center is forecast to move west-southwestward to westward, across the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. The upper level winds are forecast to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation by Thursday. Scattered strong rainshowers are from 14N to 17N between 40W and 43W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 10N to 20N between 37W and 47W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W/57W, from 14N southward, moving W 10 knots. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 13N southward, between 50W and 57W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W across Jamaica, from 19N southward, moving W 15 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 19N to 20N between 78W and 80W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W/85W, from 21N southward, moving W 15 knots. Scattered strong rainshowers are in the Gulf of Fonseca, and in neighboring parts of El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 18N northward from 80W westward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W, to 11N24W, to the 1011 mb low pressure center that is along the 40W/41W tropical wave, to 09N48W. The ITCZ continues from 09N48W, to 08N52W, 09N56W, to northern sections of Guyana. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 10N to 16N between 24W and 34W, and from 05N to 10N between 30W and 36W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 14N southward between Africa and 60W. GULF OF MEXICO... A middle level to upper level cyclonic circulation center is along the coast of Texas, in the Deep South. Cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico, Texas, and Mexico from 19N northward between 90W and 105W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers cover the Gulf of Mexico from 88W westward. A surface ridge will prevail just N of the basin through the week. The ridge will maintain gentle to moderate easterly wind flow, except pulsing to fresh NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough passes through 33N52W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 24N60W, to an upper level cyclonic circulation center that is in the Caribbean Sea about 60 nm to the south of Puerto Rico, to 13N70W. A surface trough is along 23N67W to 19N64W to 16N61W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 14N to 17N between 58W and 67W. A surface ridge will prevail N-NE of the basin through the week. The ridge will maintain moderate trade winds, except pulsing to fresh to strong in the S central Caribbean Sea. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough passes through 33N52W, to 24N60W, to an upper level cyclonic circulation center that is in the Caribbean Sea about 60 nm to the south of Puerto Rico, to 13N70W. A surface trough is along 23N67W to 19N64W to 16N61W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 21N to 24N between 54W and 57W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 20N to 30N between 50W and 70W, and from 14N to 17N between 58W and 67W. A surface trough is along 29N40W, 26N43W, 21N45W. Rainshowers in one cell are from 21N to 22N between 43W and 44W. Rainshowers are possible within 180 nm to the east of the surface trough. An upper level trough extends from a 36N11W cyclonic circulation center, to a 27N29W cyclonic circulation center, to 20N38W. Rainshowers are possible, in scattered to broken low level clouds, that are from 20N northward from 40W eastward. A well defined low level trough will move from E to W across the area during the week. It will be accompanied by scattered to numerous rainshowers and thunderstorms. Relatively weak high pressure, elsewhere across the area, will move northward gradually through the week. $$ MT