000 AXNT20 KNHC 080527 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 127 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian is centered near 46.3N 62.1W at 08/0300 UTC, or 50 nm S of Madgalen Islands, moving NNE at 23 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Numerous showers are moving across eastern Canada. Dorian will continue moving generally NE for the next 24 hours. After that, a turn toward the east- northeast is expected. On this track, Dorian will be moving near or over western Newfoundland on Sunday and then enter the North Atlantic late Sunday. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to weaken during the next couple of days, and it is forecast to drop below hurricane strength by Sunday morning. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or the website hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Gabrielle is centered near 32.0N 48.0W at 08/0300 UTC or 1090 nm WSW of the Azores moving WNW at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection is north and west of the center, from 27N-36N between 46W-54W. The storm is forecast to recurve over the central Atlantic during the next day or two and then accelerate northeastward into the north Atlantic Monday and Tuesday. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Gabrielle is forecast to become an extratropical low and begin weakening on Tuesday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC or the website hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave near the coast of Africa is along 15W S of 20N, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the wave axis from 08N-17N between 10W-20W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 33W S of 20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. A 1011 mb surface low is embedded in the wave environment centered near 14N33W. Scattered showers are noted north and west of the low from 14N-18N between 32W-36W. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week while the system moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean. The chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours with this system is low. An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 52W S of 15N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted within 100 nm on either side of the wave axis. A central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 72W S of 20N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the northern portion of the wave, mostly impacting Hispaniola and adjacent waters. A west-central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 80W S of 18N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the southern portion of the wave, mostly impacting Central America and the EPAC waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal/The Gambia near 14N16W to the low pressure mentioned in the Tropical Waves section above near 14N33W to 09N42W. The ITCZ begins near 09N42W to 08N51W then resumes west of a tropical wave near 08N53W to 08N61W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the section above, scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ from 07N- 10N between 42W-48W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough stretches across the eastern Gulf from the west coast of Florida near 26N82W to 25N91W. A few showers are along the vicinity of the boundary. In the Bay of Campeche, another surface trough is analyzed from 21N92W to 18N93W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the trough. High pressure is building across the far western Gulf, anchored by a 1016 mb high centered near 29N94W. Latest scatterometer data depicts light winds across the basin. The frontal trough across the eastern Gulf will dissipate through tonight. Weak high pressure will persist across the Gulf through next week, with mainly gentle to moderate winds expected, except occasionally fresh near the Yucatan Peninsula. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. An upper-level low is meandering into the eastern Caribbean. This is causing scattered showers to move across the Lesser Antilles. Scattered moderate convection is occurring over Haiti and moving westward into the Caribbean, from 17N-20N between 72W-78W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted in the SW basin from the monsoon trough, S of 10N between 73W-82W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate trades in the central and southeast Caribbean, with light to gentle trades elsewhere. Weak ridging will prevail north of the area through next week. Winds in the south central Caribbean will increase slightly Monday through Thursday. Elsewhere, mainly moderate trade winds will prevail. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for details on Dorian, Gabrielle and three tropical waves moving across the basin. A 1017 mb surface high is near 27N70W. A surface trough extends across the central Atlantic from 22N63W to 16N55W with scattered showers and thunderstorms occurring along the trough. Surface ridging prevails across the eastern Atlantic. A well defined trough will move from SE to NW across the basin by the end of next week. Otherwise, broad high pressure and more tranquil marine conditions will prevail through the upcoming week. $$ ERA